关键词: 水资源供需, 风险评估, 缺水量, Logistic回归模型, 张掖市

Abstract: The aim of the present research is to alleviate the conflict between water supply and demand in Zhangye city and to provide decision making basis for scientific management of water resources. According to water resources data from 2006 to 2015 in Zhangye city, Logistic regression model with water supply, water demand, and water deficit as variables was employed to obtain the risk rate of water supply and demand as well as its impact degree. Subsequently, hierarchical clustering method was adopted to assess and determine the risk levels. Finally, the possible risk levels in 2020 and 2030 were acquired. Results suggest that imbalance and conflict between water supply and demand have emerged in Zhangye in the recent decade. Future economic development in Zhangye is related with water supply and demand, and risk level is directly related to the water supply guarantee rate. To ensure an abundant water supply and maintain a low risk level, a variety of measures should be taken simultaneously.

Key words: water supply and demand, risk assessment, water deficiency, Logistic regression model, Zhangye city