为了对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险进行合理评估和科学管控,在调研分析基础上,首先通过问卷可靠性检验建立评估指标体系;接着采用主成分综合评价法计算风险影响程度;然后构建评估的未确知测度模型;最后,借助雷达模型制定风险化解策略。利用模型对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险做出预估,分析结果中风险评估指标所代表的问题,并基于评估结果对工程的社会稳定风险提出管控建议。通过实际案例研究分析,落实风险化解措施后,该工程社会稳定风险等级转化为低等、可控;提出了按照最敏感、较敏感、一般敏感和不敏感顺序进行次序化风险管控的化解策略,优先解决移民安置方案和生态环境2方面的问题;对重大水利枢纽工程社会稳定风险管理提出了4条建议。
Abstract
The aim of this research is to reasonably assess and scientifically control the social stability risks caused by the construction of large hydro-juncture project. First of all, an assessment index system was established based on questionnaire reliability test; secondly, the degree of risk impact was calculated using principal component method; and then an unascertained measure model for the assessment was built; finally, risk mitigation strategies were developed using radar model. The present model was applied to assess the social stability risks of a large hydropower project in Shaanxi Province as a case study. Problems represented by the risk assessment indicators in the results were analyzed, and suggestions for managing and controlling the social stability risks were put forward. After risk mitigation measures were implemented, the social stability turned to be controllable at low risk. In addition, a sequential risk mitigation strategy was put forward in the order of the most sensitive, sensitive, generally sensitive, and insensitive, giving priority to solving problems of migration resettlement and ecological environment. Four suggestions were also put forward for the risk management of large hydro-junctures.
关键词
重大水利工程 /
社会稳定风险评估 /
指标体系 /
未确知测度 /
风险管理
Key words
large hydro-juncture /
risk assessment of social stability /
index system /
unascertained measure /
risk management
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 王 波,黄德春,华 坚,等.水利工程建设社会稳定风险评估与实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(4):149-154.
[2] 中华人民共和国水利部.重大水利建设项目社会稳定风险评估暂行办法[Z].2012-11-06.
[3] 杨永和,吕 夏.社会稳定风险评估量化指标机制的构建及制度体系研究[J].产业与科技论坛,2017,16(21):202-204.
[4] BECKER H A. Social impactassessment[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001, 128(2):311-321.
[5] HE Z, HUANG D, ZHANG C, et al. Toward a Stakeholder Perspective on Social Stability Risk of Large Hydraulic Engineering Projects in China: A Social Network Analysis[J]. Sustainability, 2018, 10(4): 1223.
[6] 朱正威,李文君,赵欣欣.社会稳定风险评估公众参与意愿影响因素研究[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2014,34(2):49-55.
[7] 胡象明,王 锋.一个新的社会稳定风险评估分析框架:风险感知的视角[J].中国行政管理,2014(4):102-108.
[8] 郭秀云.重大项目社会稳定风险的管理与控制[J].重庆社会科学,2012(7):14-18.
[9] 李爱花,刘 恒,耿雷华,等.水利工程风险分析研究现状综述[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):453-459.
[10]孔 杨,高 爽,吴 鑫,等.基于群决策层次分析法的海堤达标建设工程社会稳定风险评估[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2015,37(5):30-33.
[11]HE G M, YANG Y. Social Stability Risk Assessment of Jianli-Jiangling Highway Project Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Applied Mechanics & Materials, 2014, 584/585/586:2193-2198.
[12]吴胜文,秦 鹏,高 健,等.熵权-集对分析方法在大坝运行风险评价中的应用[J].raybet体育在线
院报,2016,33(6):36-40.
[13]王娟丽.基于AHP-FCE法的重大项目社会稳定风险评估[J].社会科学家,2017(2):67-73.
[14]葛 巍,李宗坤,李娟娟,等.改进的集对分析法在溃坝社会影响评价中的应用[J].raybet体育在线
院报,2020,37(7):44-49.
[15]吴明隆.问卷统计分析实务:SPSS操作与应用[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2010:192-292.
[16]何蔓莉. 组织内信任与酒店员工建言行为关系研究[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2013.
[17]王光远.未确知信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):1-9.
[18]刘开第,吴和琴,王念鹏,等.未确知数学[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2004.
[19]JGJ 59—2011,建筑施工安全检查标准[S]. 北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2002.
[20]郭海东,陈 旭,李慧民.旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全的评价及改进[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(5):1720-1724.
[21]韩小孩,张耀辉,孙福军,等.基于主成分分析的指标权重确定方法[J].四川兵工学报,2012,33(10):124-126.
PDF(5279 KB)
