为缓解张掖市水资源供需矛盾,并为水资源科学管理提供决策依据,收集张掖市2006—2015年水资源相关数据,并选取张掖市供水量、需水量和缺水量3个变量,运用Logistic回归模型,得出张掖市水资源供需风险率及其影响程度;使用谱系聚类法评价其风险率并确定风险等级,最后得出张掖市在2种水平年可能存在的供需风险程度。结果表明:近10 a来,张掖市水资源均存在供需不平衡、供需矛盾的问题;张掖市未来经济发展与当地水资源供需状况有关,而供需风险的高低与供水保证率有直接关系。建议张掖市政府实行多措并举来保证水资源供应量充足,使得供需风险处于低风险。
Abstract
The aim of the present research is to alleviate the conflict between water supply and demand in Zhangye city and to provide decision making basis for scientific management of water resources. According to water resources data from 2006 to 2015 in Zhangye city, Logistic regression model with water supply, water demand, and water deficit as variables was employed to obtain the risk rate of water supply and demand as well as its impact degree. Subsequently, hierarchical clustering method was adopted to assess and determine the risk levels. Finally, the possible risk levels in 2020 and 2030 were acquired. Results suggest that imbalance and conflict between water supply and demand have emerged in Zhangye in the recent decade. Future economic development in Zhangye is related with water supply and demand, and risk level is directly related to the water supply guarantee rate. To ensure an abundant water supply and maintain a low risk level, a variety of measures should be taken simultaneously.
关键词
水资源供需 /
风险评估 /
缺水量 /
Logistic回归模型 /
张掖市
Key words
water supply and demand /
risk assessment /
water deficiency /
Logistic regression model /
Zhangye city
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] YANG Q M, WANG H, ZHAO X J. An Analysis of Safeguarding Policy for Water Resource in Guizhou [J] . Management Geological Science & Technology, 2005, (2): 54-58.
[2] JIA S. Problems and Countermeasures of Water Resource Security of China[J] . Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2004, (5): 347-351.
[3] MIN Q W. Water Security in Northwest China: Problems and Countermeasures[J] . China Population Resources & Environment, 2004, (1): 99-103.
[4] 董 超, 郭微微.克山县水资源开发利用现状及存在的问题[J] . 现代农业科技,2014,(11):221-222.
[5] 高彦春. 区域水资源供、需协调评价的初步研究[J] .地理学报,1997,52(2):163-168.
[6] 葛 贵. 对张掖市水资源管理工作的几点思考[J] . 水利规划与设计,2007,(1):42-46.
[7] 刘红英,郑凌云,拜存有.榆林市水资源供需平衡分析[J] .水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(3):130-140.
[8] 曹 琦,陈兴鹏,师满江.基于SD和DPSIRM模型的水资源管理模拟模型——以黑河流域甘州区为例[J] .经济地理,2013,33(3):36-41.
[9] 钱龙霞,张 韧,王红瑞,等.基于Logistic回归和DEA的水资源供需月风险评价模型及其应用[J] .自然资源学报,2016,31(1):177-186.
[10] 钱龙霞,王红瑞,蒋国荣,等.基于Logistic回归和NFCA的水资源供需风险分析模型及其应用[J] .自然资源学报,2011,26(12):2040-2049.
[11] 钱龙霞,张 韧,王红瑞,等. 基于Copula函数的水资源供需风险损失模型及其应用[J] .系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(2):517-527.
[12] 常福宣,陈 进,张洲英. 汉江中下游水资源风险分析与对策研究[J] .长 江 科 学 院 院 报,2013,30(7):11-15.
[13] 谢花林. 基于Logistic回归模型的区域生态用地演变影响因素分析——以京津冀地区为例[J] .资源科学,2011,33(11):2063-2070.
[14] 程晋石,孙玉琴,范志强.谱系聚类法在核电企业库存优化中的应用及若干建议[J] .物流科技,2005,28(9):80-83.
[15] 程国栋,徐中民,钟方雷.张掖市面向幸福的水资源管理战略规划[J] .冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1193-1202.
[16] 张翠萍. 张掖市节水型社会建设试点后期目标任务初探[J] .甘肃水利水电技术,2010,46(3):42-44.
[17] 绍兴日报. 绍兴:充满期待的2014年[N/OL] .绍兴日报(2014-02-20)[2016-09-15] . http://www.sx.gov.cn/art/2014/2/20/art_16204_471129.html.
[18] 鲍 超,方创琳,柳文华. 生态环境约束下的干旱区城乡用水联动模式——以河西走廊张掖市为例[J] .自然资源学报,2010,25(11):1949-1959.
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目(16XGL011)
PDF(1361 KB)
