关键词: 地下水, 可持续利用, 灌溉变化, MIKE SHE模型, 华北平原

Abstract: In addressing groundwater utilization challenges in the North China Plain (NCP), we predicted the groundwater utilization trends over the next two decades considering the impact of altered irrigation practices by using the calibrated distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model. In the prediction we employed three distinct scenarios: the current situation maintenance scenario (MS1), an irrigation water volume change scenario (MS2), and an irrigation frequency change scenario (MS3). Our findings indicate that: 1) Groundwater levels present a consistent downward trajectory across all scenarios. The annual decline ranges from 0.335 to 1.648 m/a under MS1, 0.298 to 1.588 m/a under MS2, and 0.303 to 1.607 m/a under MS3. Particularly concerning is the emergence of groundwater depression cones in the eastern coastal and Beijing-Tianjin areas, with minimal mitigation observed from changes in irrigation practices. 2) Although modifying the irrigation facilitates some recovery in groundwater levels and aquifer storage, the impact varies. Decreasing irrigation frequency yields greater benefits compared to reducing irrigation water volume. Relative to MS1, MS2 and MS3 demonstrate potential to restore aquifer storage by 0.06 and 0.12 meters respectively over a 20-year period. 3) However, reliance solely on altering irrigation practices falls short in halting the ongoing depletion of groundwater resources in the NCP. A comprehensive, long-term approach integrating additional measures is imperative to ensure sustainable groundwater management in the region.

Key words: groundwater, sustainable utilization, changes in irrigation, MIKE SHE model, North China Plain