研究全国各省区地下水供水量与地区生产总值的脱钩关系,对于今后优化调整供水结构,强化地下水资源的保护与修复具有重要意义。采用2000—2020年全国31个省区供水量、地区生产总值和人口数量资料,运用脱钩分析、驱动效应分析和空间相关分析方法,对全国近20 a来地下水供水与地区生产总值之间的脱钩状态和主要驱动因素进行研究,并探讨各驱动因素在省区尺度的空间聚集特征。结果表明:我国地下水供水量与经济发展的脱钩状态总体上由弱脱钩逐渐演变为强脱钩,2013年是由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩的分界点;用水效率提升是驱动地下水供水减少的主要因素,人均GDP增长是导致地下水供水增加的主要因素;“十五”至“十一五”期间,各省区以弱脱钩为主,“十二五”至“十三五”期间,强脱钩省区处于主导地位;“十五”至“十三五”期间,影响脱钩状态的主要因素从经济水平逐渐演变为用水效率和供水结构;“十三五”末期,各驱动效应贡献率均呈现H-H聚集或者L-L聚集特征。
Abstract
Studying the decoupling relationship between groundwater supply and GDP in provinces of China is of great significance for optimizing and adjusting the water supply structure and strengthening the protection and restoration of groundwater resources in the future. Based on the data of water supply,GDP and population of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,we investigated the decoupling between groundwater supply and GDP and the main driving factors of decoupling in the past two decades via decoupling analysis,driving effect analysis and spatial correlation analysis,and further discussed the spatial aggregation characteristics of each driving factor at provincial scale. The results manifest that the relationship between groundwater supply and economic development in China has gradually evolved from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,and the year 2013 is the dividing point from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. The increase of water use efficiency is the main factor driving the decrease of groundwater supply,while the rising of per capita GDP is the main factor driving the increase of groundwater supply. Provinces in China mainly experienced weak decoupling in the period from “The Tenth Five-Year Plan” to “The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”,while from “The Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,provinces with strong decoupling were dominant. From “The Tenth Five-Year Plan” to “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,the main factors influencing decoupling state gradually evolved from economic level to water use efficiency and water supply structure;at the end of “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,the contribution rate of each driving factor showed H-H aggregation or L-L aggregation characteristics.
关键词
地下水供水量 /
地区生产总值 /
脱钩 /
驱动因素 /
空间自相关
Key words
groundwater supply /
GDP /
decoupling /
driving factor /
spatial autocorrelation
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基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA084);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金面上项目(2020zd19);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019192/SZ)
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