关键词: 长汀县, 模糊证据权模型, 水土保持, 封禁措施, 适宜性评价

Abstract: Selecting indicators and determining their weights are worthy of discussion in the suitability assessment of soil and water conservation measures. In this article, a fuzzy weight-of-evidence model which is both knowledge and data driven was introduced to avoid the subjective arbitrariness in selecting indicators and determining their weights. The enclosing measures of Changting County were taken as case study. By screening out seven factors in natural suitability and social suitability, the posterior probability was calculated by comprehensively considering parameters of all factor layers, and then the maps of suitability classification were obtained. Compared with the distribution of enclosing measures from 2014 to 2015, the results show that 38.5% of the measures are highly suitable, 43.5% moderately suitable, 82% above moderately suitable, and 9.2% averagely suitable, which is highly consistent with the actual situation. The results prove that the fuzzy weight-of-evidence model could evaluate the suitability of soil and water conservation measures objectively and accurately. The results also provide reference and theoretical basis for governments in implementing soil and water conservation measures.

Key words: Changting county, fuzzy weight-of-evidence model, soil and water conservation, enclosing measures, suitability assessment