在水土保持措施的适宜性评价中,评价因子的选取和权重的确定是值得探讨的问题。为避免因子选取和权重确定的主观随意性,引入集知识和数据驱动为一体的模糊证据权模型。以福建省长汀县封禁措施为研究对象,选取自然适宜性和社会适宜性2方面共7个因子,综合各因子参数计算后验概率,得到长汀县水土保持措施适宜性分级图。结合2014—2015年封禁措施分布情况进行分析,结果表明:高度适宜占38.5％,中度适宜占43.5％,一般适宜占9.2％,中度适宜级别以上占82%,与实际情况有较高的吻合性。这说明模糊证据权模型能够客观、准确地对水土保持措施进行适宜性评价,可以为政府配置水土保持措施提供决策参考和理论依据。
Abstract
Selecting indicators and determining their weights are worthy of discussion in the suitability assessment of soil and water conservation measures. In this article, a fuzzy weight-of-evidence model which is both knowledge and data driven was introduced to avoid the subjective arbitrariness in selecting indicators and determining their weights. The enclosing measures of Changting County were taken as case study. By screening out seven factors in natural suitability and social suitability, the posterior probability was calculated by comprehensively considering parameters of all factor layers, and then the maps of suitability classification were obtained. Compared with the distribution of enclosing measures from 2014 to 2015, the results show that 38.5% of the measures are highly suitable, 43.5% moderately suitable, 82% above moderately suitable, and 9.2% averagely suitable, which is highly consistent with the actual situation. The results prove that the fuzzy weight-of-evidence model could evaluate the suitability of soil and water conservation measures objectively and accurately. The results also provide reference and theoretical basis for governments in implementing soil and water conservation measures.
关键词
长汀县 /
模糊证据权模型 /
水土保持 /
封禁措施 /
适宜性评价
Key words
Changting county /
fuzzy weight-of-evidence model /
soil and water conservation /
enclosing measures /
suitability assessment
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基金
国家科技支撑计划项目 (2013BAC08B02)
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