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Medium- Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using Interpretable Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Data-Scarce Regions
YOU Yu-jun, BAI Yun-gang, LU Zhen-lin, ZHANG Jiang-hui, CAO Biao, LI Wen-zhong, YU Qi-ying
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (7) : 52-59.
PDF(6677 KB)
PDF(6677 KB)
Medium- Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using Interpretable Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Data-Scarce Regions
[Objectives] This study aims to analyze the applicability of existing precipitation, temperature, and runoff data in data-scarce regions, and to develop and evaluate a deep learning hybrid model driven by multi-source information for improving the accuracy of monthly runoff forecasting. [Methods] Based on historical precipitation, temperature, and runoff sequences from the Yulongkashi River, a Convolutional Neural Network-Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit-Attention (CNN-BiGRU-Attention) model was developed. An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IPSO) algorithm was used to optimize this model, forming the IPSO-CNN-BiGRU-Attention hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with that of the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model and the ABCD water balance model. [Results] The IPSO-CNN-BiGRU-Attention model that incorporated precipitation and temperature data overall outperformed the CNN-BiGRU-Attention and GRU models, showing better agreement with the observed values. As the predication period increased, the proposed model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.11 m3/s, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.32 m3/s, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 73.76%, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient of 0.94. The highest forecast accuracy was observed in the first three months. [Conclusions] The IPSO-CNN-BiGRU-Attention model effectively integrates precipitation, temperature, and runoff information, significantly enhancing the accuracy of monthly runoff forecasts in data-scarce regions. The model demonstrates robust performance across different forecast horizons, particularly suitable for short-term predictions of 1-3 months. This approach offers a practical and reliable tool for hydrological forecasting and flood control/drought management in data-scarce basins.
runoff forecasting / data-scarce regions / SHAP interpretable machine learning analysis / IPSO-CNN-BiGRU-Attention model / prediction accuracy
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