Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

CHEN Shu; WANG Hui; ZHANG Tai-he; FAN Jia-yi; LIU Shuang; WANG Jing

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10) : 48-55. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

CHEN Shu ¹ ,
WANG Hui ² ,
ZHANG Tai-he ² ,
FAN Jia-yi ² ,
LIU Shuang ² ,
WANG Jing ³

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Abstract

Assessing the risks and reducing the hazard level of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects are of prominent significance to leveraging the benefits of such projects and enhancing regional water supply safety. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) model was employed to establish a risk evaluation index system that reflects the characteristics of risk sources and risk receptors. A method of evaluating the risk grades of water pollution emergencies was proposed by utilizing the cloud model to quantitatively assess the risk water pollution emergency in the Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project. Findings revealed low risks of water pollution emergency in the studied section. Specifically, the risks of two sections were classified as significant (Level II), while five were designated as general (Level IV). These results aligned with qualitative evaluations considering risk source magnitude, risk receptor vulnerability, and risk control effectiveness. Our study offers a novel approach for assessing the risks of water pollution emergencies in water diversion projects and lays a foundation for risk management in the study area.

Key words

water pollution emergency / water diversion project / cloud model / risk assessment / Henan section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project

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CHEN Shu , WANG Hui , ZHANG Tai-he , et al . Risk Assessment of Water Pollution Emergencies for Water Diversion Project Based on Cloud Model: A Case Study on Henan Section of the Yangtze River to Huaihe River Diversion Project[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(10): 48-55 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20230890

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https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20161367

Abstract

针对太湖流域水环境质量风险评价问题,提出了评价指标体系。根据2011—2015年7个断面的实测数据对现有指标进行筛选,计算各指标的属性重要度,并选取较为重要的4个水质指标和富营养化指数;对实测水质数据和地表水环境质量标准等级,采用Shannon熵和云模型相结合的方法,利用最大隶属度原则得到太湖流域各年水环境质量风险评价的结果。结果表明该流域水环境质量处于中等风险水平,需要采取相应措施降低发生水污染事件的风险。评价结果可以为太湖流域的水质改善提供一定的科学依据。

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. Risk Assessment of Water Environment Quality in Taihu Lake Drainage Basin Based on Compound Cloud Model[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2018, 35(6): 24-29. (in Chinese))

https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20161367

Cited in this article [1] Abstract

An index system for the risk assessment of water environment quality of Taihu Lake drainage basin is put forward. According to the measured data of seven sections during 2011-2015, we calculate the attribute importance of each index and select four important indexes together with the eutrophication indicator. Furthermore, in the light of measured water quality data and criterion for water quality classification, we obtain the results of water environment quality risk assessment for Taihu Lake drainage basin by combining Shannon entropy and cloud model under the principle of maximum degree of membership. Results reveal that the water environment quality of the Taihu Lake drainage basin is at medium risk level. Corresponding countermeasures need be taken to reduce the risk of water pollution.The research results offer scientific basis for improving the water quality in the Taihu lake drainage basin.

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