Abstract: Identifying and analyzing risk factors for levee is an important part of flood control system in China. The subjective uncertainty in human recognition is a challenge for levee risk assessment. Based on unascertained measure theory and analytic network process, we presented a risk analysis model for levee engineering, and expounded the principles and solution of the model in details. With a levee project as an example, we established a risk index system, determined the weights of indexes, and calculated the possibility of risk in accordance with the confidence level. The measure space of unascertained ANP assessment model conformed with the normalized and additive condition. The model was confirmed to be credible and  could be regarded as important basis for the risk control and management of levee.

Key words: risk assessment, unascertained measure, ANP (Analytic Network Process), confidence level