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Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River
SHAO Jun, LU Man-sheng, XIE Shan, QIAN Xiao-yan, GONG De-lin, YANG Kun
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11) : 181-188.
PDF(1522 KB)
PDF(1522 KB)
Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Runoff in the Source Region of the Yangtze River
Based on runoff series from the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations, we use the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) to analyze the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the impact of NAO on winter, summer, and annual runoff at the two stations. The impact of changes in wet and dry conditions was analyzed using correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform to examine the multi-scale correlation characteristics between the NAO and runoff. The possible impact of NAO on runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River was also analyzed from the perspective of sea-atmosphere coupling affecting atmospheric circulation mechanisms. The research results showed that winter runoff was greatly affected by NAO. Before 2000, strong NAO years corresponded to relatively lower runoff probabilities, while weak NAO years corresponded to slightly higher runoff probabilities. Summer runoff was more significantly affected by the temperature in the source region of the Yangtze River. In summer, the response to the strength of NAO was not as obvious as in winter. The NAOI and the runoff at the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda hydrological stations showed good convergence in inter-decadal variation, but there was no close relationship on inter-annual or shorter time scales. There was a resonance cycle between monthly runoff and the NAOI on a time scale of 8-16 months throughout the entire period from 1960 to 2020. Before the 1970s and 1980s, the two stations and the NAOI showed similar frequency and phase changes; after that, they exhibited opposite phase changes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, as the most important climate mode in the North Atlantic region, directly affects the strength of the monsoon and westerly winds through atmospheric teleconnection and Rossby Waves, and then adjusts the water vapor transport over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, thereby affecting the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River.
North Atlantic Oscillation / runoff / correlation analysis / cross wavelet transform / source area of the Yangtze River
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利用青藏高原中东部1961-2004年60个气象台站夏季(6-8月)降水资料, 通过旋转经验正交函数分解发现青藏高原夏季降水存在南北反向变化的空间模态, 分析表明这种变化模态与北大西洋涛动(NAO)密切相关.利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行环流场分析, 探讨了NAO对青藏高原这种降水空间变化模态的影响机制. 结果表明: 强NAO年份时, 高原北部水汽输送通量强度增强, 水汽辐合增强, 而高原南部水汽输送通量强度减弱, 此时高原切变线位置明显偏北, 正是在这种水汽输送和环流形式配置下使得高原北部降水偏多而高原南部降水偏少;在弱NAO年份, 上述情况基本相反.
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As the Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the headwaters of the most important large rivers in the Asia and plays an important role in the Asia climate system and water cycle. Precipitation variation on the TP has a significant impact on the local human activities, ecosystems and water resources. The mechanism of precipitation change still need to be searched, although a lot of works have been done on the precipitation variation on the TP. Here a detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in summer precipitation in the TP over the period of 1961-2004 is presented based on a developed daily precipitation dataset of 60 weather stations. The 60 stations in the central and eastern TP are selected for the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) analysis with a relatively uniform distribution of the station network. It is found that there is dramatically difference between the southern and northern TP, and even reverse. Such dipole precipitation pattern over TP is believed correlating well with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The possible mechanism of the correlation is studied by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with analysis-by-synthesis and precipitation diagnosis approach. When NAO index is high, the moisture convergence strengthens with precipitable vapor and the water vapor flux increasing in the northern TP, but the precipitable vapor and the water vapor flux decreasing in the southern TP. However, the variation of water vapor flux divergence is relatively complex under the influence of the southwest monsoon. Meanwhile, the plateau shear line move northward obviously. As a result, the summer precipitation is usually above the normal in the northern TP but below the normal in the south TP. When NAO index is low, the above processes are almost opposite.
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受气候变化影响,近20 a来长江源区径流条件发生了较大变化。以沱沱河为研究区域,采用沱沱河1960—2019年实测水文气象资料,分析了长江源区沱沱河季节性径流变化规律,以及季节性降水、气温的变化规律,采用交叉小波变换分析季节性径流与降水、气温之间的时频变化规律及其相关关系。研究结果表明:沱沱河春、夏、秋季径流均呈现出显著增加的趋势,其中春、夏、秋季径流突变点均集中在2006—2008年附近;各季节性降水增加的趋势并不显著,但季节性气温显著上升并延续至今;夏季径流与夏季降水之间的相关程度最为明显,其次为秋季和春季;气温对径流的影响是正相关的,但在不同时间尺度上存在不同的表征,其中以夏季气温和秋季气温对径流的影响最为显著。研究结果对揭示气候变化条件下长江源区季节性径流演变规律及其水文响应提供了参考。
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Runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River has undergone great changes in recent decades.It is of great practical significance to study the characteristics of runoff variation under the background of global warming for understanding the hydrological effects caused by climate change.The evolution of runoff and its relationship with meteorological factors such as precipitation, temperature, and evaporation were analyzed based on measured hydro-meteorological data from 1960 to 2019 at Tuotuo River.The relationship between δ<sup>18</sup>O records and ice core accumulations among different ice cores, and the correlation between ice core records and runoff in Tuotuo River were examined.The 10-year moving average runoff series of the Tuotuo River from 1900 to 1960 was reconstructed, and the runoff variation of Tuotuo River over the past century was analyzed.Results revealed a siginificant increase trend of annual runoff of Tuotuo River around 2002.The increase in glaciers and snow melt induced by the sharp rise in temperature is an important cause for the sharp increase in flow rate in the source region of the Yangtze River.The reconstruction of the runoff series of Tuotuo River since 1900 demonstrated that the source area of the Yangtze River had experienced many alternating dry-wet changes, and the runoff variation rules are in general consistent with the three abrupt climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau.The research findings provided a basis for revealing the evolution law and hydrological response of river runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River under climate change.
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An analysis of the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Arctic Oscillation(AO) and river runoff throughout Xinjiang region of China was presented.The results suggest that the NAO and AO,which drives the climate change of the Northern Hemisphere,have a significant teleconnection with river runoff in Xinjiang Region.One can see that the NAO and AO affect the river runoff in Xinjiang region.The correlations between NAO and AO and river runoff have notable regional difference throughout the region.It is found that the influence of NAO and AO over the last 50 years has a 5-year lag effect on the river runoff in Xinjiang Region.The correlation coefficients are 0.343 and 0.512,with significant levels of 95% and 99%,respectively.
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