Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Duhe River Basin in the Qinling-Daba Mountains

ZHANG Xiao-ying; HE Yi; WENG Xue-xian; SHAO Yi-ting

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

PDF(2001 KB)

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2) : 44-51. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

Water Resources

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Duhe River Basin in the Qinling-Daba Mountains

ZHANG Xiao-ying^1,2, HE Yi^1,2, WENG Xue-xian³, SHAO Yi-ting⁴

Author information +

History +

Abstract

The hydrological response to climate change and human activities holds significant importance in the study of water resource management within a basin. In this study, we applied eight elasticity methods based on the Budyko framework to evaluate and quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on alterations in runoff patterns. This assessment was based on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff data spanning from 1960 to 2016 in the Duhe River basin. The Pettitt test method was utilized to identify abrupt shifts, while the Mann-Kendall test method was employed to assess monotonic trends. The results revealed the following key findings: 1) Annual runoff exhibited a significant declining trend (p<0.05), with a change point identified in 1994. However, annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration showed an insignificant decreasing trend (p>0.1). 2) The hydrological response demonstrates a greater sensitivity to human activities than to climate change. Human activities contributed between 57.69% and 72.00%, whereas climate change contributed between 28.00% and 42.31%. 3) Changes in underlying surface characteristics, primarily attributed to human activities, were identified as the main cause of runoff attenuation. This suggests that increased forest and vegetation cover led to a reduction in runoff. The study underscores the dominant role of human activities in hydrological processes, providing crucial theoretical support for water resource management and integrated management within the Duhe River basin.

Key words

runoff / Budyko framework / climate change / human activities / Duhe River basin

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

ZHANG Xiao-ying, HE Yi, WENG Xue-xian, SHAO Yi-ting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Duhe River Basin in the Qinling-Daba Mountains[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(2): 44-51 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

References

[1] CHEN Y, LI B, LI Z, et al. Water Resource Formation and Conversion and Water Security in Arid Region of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(7): 939-952.
[2] 陈敏建,王浩,王芳.内陆干旱区水分驱动的生态演变机理[J].生态学报,2004,24(10):2108-2114.(CHEN Min-jian,WANG Hao,WANG Fang.Water-driven Ecological Evolution Mechanism in Inland Arid Region[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2004,24(10):2108-2114.(in Chinese))
[3] 王启猛, 张捷斌, 付意成. 变化环境下塔里木河径流变化及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2010, 30(4): 99-103, 109.(WANG Qi-meng, ZHANG Jie-bin, FU Yi-cheng. Runoff Change and Its Influencing Factors under Changing Environment in Tarim River[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2010, 30(4): 99-103, 109.(in Chinese))
[4] 韩京成, 黄国和, 李国强, 等. 基于贝叶斯理论的SLURP水文模型参数不确定性评估及日径流模拟分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013, 31(12): 13-17.(HAN Jing-cheng, HUANG Guo-he, LI Guo-qiang, et al. Parameter Uncertainty Analysis and Daily Streamflow Simulation of SLURP Hydrologic Model Based on Bayesian Theory[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2013, 31(12): 13-17.(in Chinese))
[5] 李凌程,张利平,夏军,等.气候波动和人类活动对南水北调中线工程典型流域径流影响的定量评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(2):118-126.(LI Ling-cheng,ZHANG Li-ping,XIA Jun,et al. Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff Change in the Typical Basin of the Middle Route of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(2):118-126.(in Chinese))
[6] 林若兰, 卓文珊, 高延康, 等. 基于SWAT模型的北江流域生态径流调节服务评估[J]. 水资源保护, 2020, 36(6): 131-136.(LIN Ruo-lan, ZHUO Wen-shan, GAO Yan-kang, et al. Assessment of Ecohydrological Regulation Service in the Beijiang River Basin Based on SWAT Model[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2020, 36(6): 131-136.(in Chinese))
[7] WANG D, HEJAZI M. Quantifying the Relative Contribution of the Climate and Direct Human Impacts on Mean Annual Streamflow in the Contiguous United States[J]. Water Resources Research, 2011, 47(10):W00J12.1-W00J12.16.
[8] 徐翔宇. 气候变化下典型流域的水文响应研究[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2012.(XU Xiang-yu. Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Typical Catchments[D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2012. (in Chinese))
[9] LIANG W, BAI D, WANG F,et al. Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Streamflow Changes Based on a Budyko Hydrological Model in China’s Loess Plateau[J]. Water Resources Research, 2015, 51(8): 6500-6519.
[10]XU X, YANG D, YANG H,et al. Attribution Analysis Based on the Budyko Hypothesis for Detecting the Dominant Cause of Runoff Decline in Haihe Basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 510: 530-540.
[11]ZHANG Y, HE Y, LI Y, et al. Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Forces of NDVI from 1982 to 2015 in the Qinba Mountains, China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022, 29(34): 52277-52288.
[12]梁小青, 纪昌明, 俞洪杰, 等. 1962—2015年堵河流域径流变化特征分析[J]. 水力发电, 2019, 45(1): 4-8, 31.(LIANG Xiao-qing, JI Chang-ming, YU Hong-jie, et al. Analysis on Runoff Change Characteristics of Duhe River Basin during 1962-2015[J]. Water Power, 2019, 45(1): 4-8, 31.(in Chinese))
[13]王忠华, 贺德才, 卢向飞. 堵河流域水文特征分析[J]. 水文, 2015, 35(1): 92-96.(WANG Zhong-hua, HE De-cai, LU Xiang-fei. Analysis of Hydrological Characteristics of Duhe River Basin[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2015, 35(1): 92-96.(in Chinese))
[14]梁小青,张验科,阎晓冉.堵河流域降水量演变规律分析[J].甘肃高师学报,2020,25(2):45-49.(LIANG Xiao-qing,ZHANG Yan-ke,YAN Xiao-ran.Research on Evolution of Precipitation in Duhe River Basin[J]. Journal of Gansu Normal Colleges,2020,25(2):45-49.(in Chinese))
[15]顾绍峰, 余蔚卿, 吴素娟, 等. 堵河流域径流变化趋势及特征分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2021(4): 426-434.(GU Shao-feng, YU Wei-qing, WU Su-juan, et al. Analysis on Runoff Variation Trend and Characteristics in Duhe River[J]. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2021(4): 426-434.(in Chinese))
[16]马永明, 张利华, 朱志儒, 等. 堵河子流域划分及其NDVI特征分析[J]. 云南大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 42(2): 290-298.(MA Yong-ming, ZHANG Li-hua, ZHU Zhi-ru, et al. Division of Duhe River Basin and Analysis of Its NDVI Characteristics[J]. Journal of Yunnan University (Natural Sciences Edition), 2020, 42(2): 290-298.(in Chinese))
[17]蒲云海, 张应坤, 江明喜, 等. 神农架北坡堵河源自然保护区植物多样性研究[J]. 武汉植物学研究, 2006, 24(4): 327-332.(PU Yun-hai, ZHANG Ying-kun, JIANG Ming-xi, et al. Study on Plant Diversity of Duheyuan Nature Reserve on the Northern Slope of Mt.Shennongjia, Hubei, China[J]. Journal of Wuhan Botanical Research, 2006, 24(4): 327-332.(in Chinese))
[18]孙恒兵, 汪炎炎, 周帆, 等. 堵河水沙变化特征及成因分析[J]. 人民珠江, 2016, 37(3): 14-17.(SUN Heng-bing, WANG Yan-yan, ZHOU Fan, et al. Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Water Discharge and Sediment Load Changes of Duhe River[J]. Pearl River, 2016, 37(3): 14-17.(in Chinese))
[19]ALLEN R,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.56[K]. Rome, Italy:FAO,1998.
[20]YANG J, HUANG X. The 30 m Annual Land Cover Dataset and Its Dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2021, 13(8): 3907-3925.
[21]赵广举,穆兴民,田鹏,等.近60年黄河中游水沙变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1070-1078.(ZHAO Guang-ju,MU Xing-min,TIAN Peng,et al. The Variation Trend of Streamflow and Sediment Flux in the Middle Reaches of Yellow River over the Past 60 Years and the Influencing Factors[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(6):1070-1078.(in Chinese))
[22]申滔滔. 基于Budyko框架下漳河流域径流变化归因分析[D]. 邯郸: 河北工程大学, 2020.(SHEN Tao-tao. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Zhanghe River Basin Based on Budyko Framework[D]. Handan: Hebei University of Engineering, 2020. (in Chinese))
[23]SCHIREIBER P. Uber die Beziehungen zwischen dem Niederschlag und der Wasserführung der Flüsse in Mitteleuropa[J]. Zeitachrift fur Meteorologie, 1904, 21(10): 441-452.
[24]OL’DEKOP E M. On Evaporation from the Surface of River Basins[J]. Transaction on the Meteorological Observations, 1911, 4: 200.
[25]BUDYKO M I. Evaporation under Natural Conditions[M]. Leningrad: Gidrometeorizdat, 1948.
[26]PIKE J G. The Estimation of Annual Run-off from Meteorological Data in a Tropical Climate[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1964, 2(2): 116-123.
[27]傅抱璞. 山地蒸发的计算[J]. 气象科学, 1996, 16(4): 328-335.(FU Bao-pu. On the Calculation of Evaporation from Land Surface in Mountainous Areas[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 1996, 16(4): 328-335.(in Chinese))
[28]ZHANG L, DAWES W R, WALKER G R. Response of Mean Annual Evapotranspiration to Vegetation Changes at Catchment Scale[J]. Water Resources Research, 2001, 37(3): 701-708.
[29]YANG H, YANG D, LEI Z, et al. New Analytical Derivation of the Mean Annual Water-energy Balance Equation[J]. Water Resources Research, 2008, 44(3): W03410.
[30]WANG D, TANG Y. A One-parameter Budyko Model for Water Balance Captures Emergent Behavior in Darwinian Hydrologic Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41(13): 4569-4577.
[31]王金凤. 气候变化和人类活动影响下的北大河流域径流变化分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2019, 33(3): 86-91.(WANG Jin-feng. Analysis on Runoff Variation in the Beida River Basin under the Influence of Climate Change and Human Activities[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2019, 33(3): 86-91.(in Chinese))
[32]罗伟祥, 白立强, 宋西德, 等. 不同覆盖度林地和草地的径流量与冲刷量[J]. 水土保持学报, 1990, 4(1): 30-35.(LUO Wei-xiang, BAI Li-qiang, SONG Xi-de, et al. Runoff and Scouring Amount in Forest and Grass Land with Different Cover Rate[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 1990, 4(1): 30-35.(in Chinese))