Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Kriging Model

ZHAN Liang-hong; WEI Bo-wen; ZHONG Zi-meng; XU Zhen-kai

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20171386

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Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8) : 159-164. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20171386

HYDRAULIC STRUCTURE AND MATERIAL

Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Kriging Model

ZHAN Liang-hong,WEI Bo-wen,ZHONG Zi-meng,XU Zhen-kai

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Abstract

In the reliability analysis for gravity dam, statistical information is challenging to be obtained by probability reliability analysis due to the limitations posed by uncertain parameters, and the functions are highly nonlinear hence are difficult to be described with analytical expression. In view of this, a non-probabilistic reliability(N-PR) index calculation model of gravity dam in consideration of uncertain parameter ranges is constructed. On this basis,the calculation method of N-PR index for gravity dam in association with Kriging model’s strong prediction and fitting advantages is built.A practical engineering example demonstrates that the present method effectively overcomes the limits that the uncertain parameters shall vary randomly in probability reliability analysis and the calculation results are highly sensitive to the parameters. The method also adapts to the highly nonlinear function of gravity dam.

Key words

gravity dam / non-probabilistic reliability / Kriging model / interval variables / anti-slip stability

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ZHAN Liang-hong,WEI Bo-wen,ZHONG Zi-meng,XU Zhen-kai. Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Kriging Model[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2019, 36(8): 159-164 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20171386

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