关键词: 农业水资源承载力, 分析评价, 主成分分析法, 供需矛盾, 吉林西部

Abstract: On the basis of relevant data and previous researches, we employ principal component analysis and select nine indicators as evaluation factors to assess the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in the western regions of Jilin Province. Results showed that (1) the main components affecting the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in this region include social economy, water resources utilization, cultivated land and population. As social economy, population and cultivated land area grow, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resource will be more prominent; (2) we divide the region into three levels (good, moderate, and poor) according to the degree of the carrying capacity. The north of the research area has large carrying capacity, while the south of the research area has small carrying capacity, which indicates that the contradiction between water supply and demand in the northern part of the research area is smaller than that in the southern part; (3) owing to abundant water resources, the carrying capacity in Qianguo county and urban Baicheng city are bigger than that of other regions. Meanwhile, the water-saving measures and water consumptions in these two areas are more advanced than those of other areas. To accelerate the economic growth, water utilization rate should be improved, foreign water and rainfall as well as flood should be utilized, water-saving awareness should be popularized, and proper economic measures could be implemented.

Key words: carrying capacity of agricultural water resources, analysis and assessment, principal component analysis, contradiction between supply and demand, western Jilin province