2023年滇池流域旱情诊断及思考

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20240733

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2023年处于云贵高原腹地的滇池流域受高温少雨影响,河湖来水严重偏少,为提高应对高频率发生旱灾事件的能力、指导干旱叠加效应影响下的抗旱工作,基于流域内长系列水文资料,采用GIS空间插值、数理统计法分析2023年流域雨水情势,利用标准化降水指数(SPI)、枯水重现期对2023年旱情进行诊断。结果表明:2023年滇池流域发生空间范围广、持续时间长的干旱事件;河道径流出现汛期反枯和提前进入枯水的现象,4—7月份、9—12月份各径流断面均出现100 a或超百年一遇枯水,造成区域工程蓄水、城乡供用水严重不足,极大影响了水资源的可持续利用。为提高滇池流域抗旱减灾的能力,提出了5个方面的建议:建立健全干旱预测预报预警体系、加快滇中调水和抗旱保供水小型水源工程建设、严格水资源管理和科学调度水资源、加强区域雨洪资源化利用研究、开展滇池动态控制水位研究。

关键词: 旱情诊断, 长系列水文资料, 标准化降水指数(SPI), 干旱强度, 枯水重现期, 滇池流域, 抗旱减灾

Abstract:

[Objective] In 2023, influenced by abnormal atmospheric circulation and sea temperature anomalies, the Dianchi Lake Basin, situated in the central Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, suffered a severe drought. The basin did not enter the rainy season until late June. The annual average temperature, highest daily average temperature, total number of meteorological drought days, and number of extreme drought days all broke historical records, leading to a substantial reduction in river inflow and limited water replenishment of lakes and reservoirs. This study aims to enhance the ability to respond to high-frequency drought events and to guide drought relief efforts under the compounded effects of drought. [Methods] Based on long-term hydrological data series in the basin, this study analyzed the precipitation and runoff conditions in 2023 using GIS-based spatial interpolation and mathematical statistical methods. The drought condition in 2023 was diagnosed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and low-flow return periods. [Results] In 2023, the Dianchi Lake Basin experienced a drought event with extensive spatial coverage and long duration, manifesting as a basin-wide moderate-level drought. Nine months of the year had basin-wide droughts of varying degrees, and one month had localized drought. Among them, months with severe drought or above accounted for half of the year. River runoff showed phenomena of low flow during the flood season and an early onset of low flow. From April to July and September to December, control cross-sections experienced low flows with return periods of 100 years or more, causing severe shortages in regional water storage projects and urban-rural water supply and use, thereby profoundly impacting the sustainable utilization of water resources. The analysis indicated that precipitation and water resources in the basin may exhibit a continuous decreasing trend. This drought event was a typical case of the combined effects of “circulation anomalies, underlying surface feedback, and water resource vulnerability.” [Conclusion] This study recommends suggestions integrating intelligent early warning,engineering resilience,and institutional innovation:1) improving the drought prediction, forecasting, and early warning system; 2) accelerating the construction of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project and small-scale water source projects; 3) strengthening water resource management and scientific scheduling; 4) advancing research on the utilization of rainwater and floodwater resources; 5) exploring the dynamic control of Dianchi Lake’s water level. The findings not only provide a Chinese solution for drought relief in global karst plateau regions but also offer scientific support for in-depth exploration of the occurrence and development patterns of regional droughts, promotion of ecological protection and restoration, enhancement of drought monitoring and early warning systems, and improvement of response capabilities. This holds significant practical importance for ensuring urban and rural water supply security in the context of frequent droughts.

Key words: drought diagnosis, long-series hydrology data, Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI), drought intensity, low-flow return period, Dianchi Lake Basin, drought relief and disaster reduction

中图分类号:

TV21水资源调2查与水利规划

李宝芬, 袁树堂, 崔松云, 朱玲, 李晓鹏, 董盛明. 2023年滇池流域旱情诊断及思考[J]. raybet体育在线院报, 2025, 42(9): 99-105.

LI Bao-fen, YUAN Shu-tang, CUI Song-yun, ZHU Ling, LI Xiao-peng, DONG Sheng-ming. Diagnosis and Reflections on Drought in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(9): 99-105.

图/表 10

图1 滇池流域水文、气象站点分布

Fig.1 Distribution map of hydrological and meteorological stations in Dianchi Lake Basin

图2 滇池流域2023年降水量等值面及距平

Fig.2 Contour and anomaly maps of precipitation in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

图3 滇池流域2023年各月降水量与多年平均、1956年以来最少前4位对比

Fig.3 Comparison of monthly precipitation in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023 with multi-year average and four lowest historical values since 1956

表1 滇池流域2023年各月降水量空间分布特征

Table 1 Spatial distribution characteristics of monthly precipitation in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

月份	降水量距平/%		降水量空间分析
	范围	平均值	距平高值区域		距平低值区域
	范围	平均值	空间位置	状态	空间位置	状态
1—5	-90.3~-56.9	-82.5	滇池东南部呈贡与晋宁相交一带	枯水	南部晋宁大河、柴河水库上游	枯水
6	-62.7~-6.6	-49.2	西南角晋宁双龙水库上游及东部梁王山一带	正常	主城区	枯水
7	-67.5~16.5	-38.1	主城区以北的金殿、松华坝水库区域和西南角晋宁双龙水库上游	偏丰	东部官渡大部地区	枯水
8	0.95~157.6	62.8	主城区	丰水	高值区以北的松华坝水库区域	正常
9	-82.5~36.2	1.2	主城区西部山区	偏丰	南部和东部官渡大部	枯水
10	-68.7~4.8	2.5	中部的主城区偏东及新城区	正常	南部晋宁柴河、大河水库上游	枯水
11	-94.9~-56.3	-46.9	主城区东部	枯水	西南部和高值区东部宝象河水库上游	枯水
12	-30.9~187.6	56.7	北部山区	丰水	南部	偏枯

图4 滇池流域2023年各月降水量距平分布

Fig.4 Distribution map of monthly precipitation anomalies in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

图5 1956—2023年滇池流域降水量及各径流代表站径流深过程变化对照

Fig.5 Comparison of precipitation and runoff depth processes at representative runoff stations in Dianchi Lake Basin (1956—2023)

图6 2023年滇池流域各代表径流站及入湖径流逐月距平分布

Fig.6 Distribution of monthly runoff anomalies at representative runoff stations and inflows into Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

图7 滇池流域2023年SPI指数空间分布

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of SPI in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

表2 滇池流域2023年各月干旱强度分析

Table 2 Analysis of monthly drought intensity in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

月份	旱情诊断
月份	干旱站次比P/%	干旱强度S_i	干旱强度级别
1	100	1.94	重度
2	100	1.3	中度
3	100	1.81	重度
4	100	2.15	重度
5	100	2.63	重度
6	100	1.53	重度
7	92.9	1.42	中度
8	0
9	14.3	0.65	局域性轻度
10	3.6	0.8	无明显干旱
11	89.3	1.63	重度
12	92.9	1.11	中度

表3 滇池流域2023年水文控制断面年月枯水重现期分析

Table 3 Analysis of annual and monthly low-flow return periods at hydrological control cross-sections in Dianchi Lake Basin in 2023

月份	径流枯水重现期/a
月份	中和	白邑	干海子	双龙湾	入湖
1	5	10	10	10	5
2	5	10	20	10	10
3	3	20	20	20	50
4	15	>100	>100	>100	>100
5	20	100	>100	>100	15
6	50	100	>100	20	10
7	100	100	>100	20	10
8	5	3	4	丰水	丰水
9	10	20	>100	10	>100
10	>100	20	50	5	10
11	>100	100	50	3	10
12	100	100	20	5	3
年	20	20	50	10	15

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