1981—2020年高黎贡山南段极端降水特性及演变趋势

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20240374

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示高黎贡山南段极端降水时空变化特征及其与强ENSO事件的关系,基于1981—2020年区域8个站点的日降水数据,采用创新趋势分析(ITA)、线性回归分析(LR)以及复合分析等方法,以海温异常指数(DMI、ONI)为支持,选取5个极端降水指数(EPI)进行分析。结果显示:除最大连续干旱日数(CDD)显著增加外,大部分极端降水指标呈减少趋势,预示该地区存在干旱加剧的总体趋势,其中,东坡、西坡湿日总降水量(PTOT)减少幅度分别为39.9、46.1 mm/(10 a);最大连续干旱日数(CDD)增加幅度分别为3.9、0.7 d/(10 a);区域极端降水与大洋尼诺指数ONI存在弱到中等程度的关联,该关系主要表现为负相关,即ONI为正位相时,雨季降水更倾向为偏少(偏干)状态;在大尺度驱动因素的季节关联上,西、东坡流域略有差异。对前期和同期季节尺度ONI的跟踪将有助于对本地区极端降水变化作出预估。

关键词: 极端降水, 演变趋势, 创新趋势分析, 线性回归分析, 复合分析, ONI, 关联, 高黎贡山

Abstract:

[Objectives] To reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1981 to 2020 in the southern Gaoligong Mountain(S-GLG) and explore its relationship with strong ENSO events, this study analyses the trends of five extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their responses to large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies, such as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), providing a scientific basis for regional drought risk assessment and water resource management. [Methods] Using daily precipitation data from 8 meteorological stations, this study selected five EPIs: total wet-day precipitation (PTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and extreme precipitation intensity (SDII). Innovative trend analysis (ITA) and linear regression (LR) were used to analyze long-term trends, and composite analysis was employed to examine the impact of ENSO events (represented by ONI and DMI) on extreme precipitation. Seasonal-scale correlation analysis was conducted to distinguish the response differences between the western and eastern slopes. [Results] The results showed that except for a significant increase in CDD (3.9 d/(10 a) on the western slope and 0.7 d/(10 a) on the eastern slope), other EPIs exhibited decreasing trends, with PTOT decreasing most significantly (39.9 mm/(10 a) on the western slope and 46.1 mm/(10 a) on the eastern slope), indicating an intensifying drought risk in the region. ENSO correlations revealed weak to moderate negative relationships between extreme precipitation and ONI (p<0.1). During positive ONI phases (El Niño-like conditions), there was a higher probability of reduced precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, the influence of DMI showed phase-dependent negative correlations, but with lower statistical significance. Regional seasonal differences were evident. The western slope showed a stronger negative correlation between rainy-season PTOT and CWD and simultaneous ONI during summer and autumn (r=-0.46 to -0.52), while the eastern slope exhibited a more pronounced lagged response of corresponding indices to ONI in the previous autumn and winter (r=-0.33 to -0.38), potentially indicating that topography may modulate the transmission of ENSO signals across the region. [Conclusions] The southern Gaoligong Mountain is experiencing a “drying” trend in extreme precipitation, with ENSO events (especially ONI) serving as key driving factors. Innovative findings include: (1) the first quantitative demonstration of seasonal response differences to ENSO between the western and eastern slopes, providing key parameters for improving local climate models; and (2) the proposal that early-stage ONI tracking may serve as a potential indicator for regional extreme precipitation prediction. These research findings provide important guidance for developing climate adaptation strategies in the region of Hengduan Mountains.

Key words: extreme precipitation, evolution trends, innovative trend analysis, linear regression analysis, composite analysis, ONI, correlation, Gaoligong Mountain

中图分类号:

TV11
P339

陈文华, 张宁, 冯春红, 赵伟华, 杨敏. 1981—2020年高黎贡山南段极端降水特性及演变趋势[J]. raybet体育在线院报, 2025, 42(6): 44-50.

CHEN Wen-hua, ZHANG Ning, FENG Chun-hong, ZHAO Wei-hua, YANG Min. Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(6): 44-50.

图/表 12

图1 研究区雨量站分布

Fig.1 Distribution of rainfall stations in the study area

表1 S-GLG东、西坡年度极端降水指标均值(1981—2020年)

Table 1 Annual average values of extreme precipitationindicators on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG(1981-2020)

地点	PTOT/mm	RXID/mm	R95P/mm	CWD/d	CDD/d
东坡	1 009.3	60	26.3	9.7	42.8
西坡	1 844.7	69.5	21.2	23.9	39.1

表2 雨季、旱季与年度极端降水指标之间的Spearman相关系数(r)

Table 2 Spearman correlation coefficient (r)between extreme precipitation indicators during rainyseason, dry season, and annual period

时间尺度	PTOT	RX1D	R95P	CWD	CDD
雨季-年	0.98*	0.98*	0.96*	0.99*	0.05
旱季-年	0.67*	0.14*	0.25*	0.32*	0.98*
雨季-旱季	0.53*	0.08	0.05	0.29*	0.01

表3 不同极端降水指标之间的 Spearman 相关系数(r)

Table 3 Spearman correlation coefficients (r) between different extreme precipitation indicators

指标	PTOT	RX1D	R95P	CWD	CDD
PTOT	1
RX1D	0.39*	1
R95P	-0.13*	0.33*	1
CWD	0.83*	0.29*	-0.23*	1
CDD	-0.22*	-0.14*	0.09	-0.15*	1

图2 年尺度高黎贡山南段东坡和西坡PTOT的ITA图

Fig.2 ITA plots of annual PTOT on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG

图3 年尺度高黎贡山南段东坡和西坡RX1D的ITA图

Fig.3 ITA plots of annual RX1D on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG

图4 年尺度高黎贡山南段东坡和西坡 R95P的ITA图

Fig.4 ITA plots of annual R95P on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG

图5 年尺度高黎贡山南段东坡和西坡CWD的ITA图

Fig.5 ITA plots of annual CWD on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG

图6 年尺度高黎贡山南段东坡和西坡CDD的ITA图

Fig.6 ITA plots of annual CDD on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG

表4 ITA与线性回归估算的年变化率

Table 4 Slope of change (annually) estimated by ITA and linear regression

地点	PTOT/mm		RX1D/mm		R95P/mm		CWD/d		CDD/d
地点	ITA	LR	ITA	LR	ITA	LR	ITA	LR	ITA	LR
西坡	-4.61*	-3.98	-0.30*	-0.26	-0.13*	-0.076	0.001	0.017	0.07*	0.15
东坡	-3.99*	-3.24	-0.04*	0.03	-0.16*	-0.14	0.007	0.013	0.39*	0.35

表5 季节IOD、ONI与极端降水指标的相关系数

Table 5 Correlation coefficients between seasonal IOD, ONI and extreme precipitation indicators

季节	指标		雨季PTOT				雨季RX1D				雨季R95P				雨季CWD				旱季CDD
季节	指标		东坡		西坡		东坡		西坡		东坡		西坡		东坡		西坡		东坡	西坡
上年秋季	IOD	-0.30		0.06		0.04		0.09		-0.09		0.08		-0.18		-0.05		0.02		0.13
上年秋季	ONI	-0.38*		-0.08		0.11		0.17		-0.08		0.06		-0.35*		-0.04		-0.42*		-0.31
上年冬季	IOD	-0.05		0.23		0.01		0.04		-0.21		-0.01		0.07		0.27		0.02		0.06
上年冬季	ONI	-0.33*		-0.04		0.10		0.18		-0.02		0.08		-0.36*		-0.03		-0.37*		-0.32*
当年春季	IOD	-0.10		-0.04		-0.09		-0.27		-0.08		-0.17		-0.19		0.10		0.03		-0.10
当年春季	ONI	-0.32*		-0.23		0.20		0.19		0.17		0.05		-0.34*		-0.12		-0.35*		-0.38*
当年夏季	IOD	-0.28		-0.10		-0.28		-0.19		-0.17		0.11		-0.28		-0.22		—		—
当年夏季	ONI	-0.24		-0.46*		0.10		0.07		0.16		-0.02		-0.19		-0.36*		—		—
当年秋季	IOD	-0.16		-0.25		-0.20		-0.21		-0.18		0.03		0.00		-0.19		—		—
当年秋季	ONI	-0.20		-0.52*		0.09		0.00		0.16		-0.07		-0.04		-0.30		—		—

图7 高黎贡山南段东、西坡El Niño年、La Nina年极端降水指标的复合分析

Fig.7 Composite analysis of extreme precipitation indicators on eastern and western slopes of S-GLG during El Niño years and La Niña years

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