鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230539

院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 19-26.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20230539

鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变

叶许春¹(), 袁燕萍¹, 刘婷婷¹, 段红鑫², 李相虎³

¹ 西南大学地理科学学院,重庆 400715
² 昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明 650093
³ 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008

收稿日期:2023-05-18 修回日期:2023-08-04 出版日期:2024-09-01 发布日期:2024-09-20
作者简介:
叶许春(1982-), 男, 安徽潜山人, 教授, 博士, 主要从事水文水资源演变机理及生态效应研究。E-mail:yxch2500@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42071028); 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204102)

Regional Characteristics and Evolution of Meteorological Droughts in Poyang Lake Basin

YE Xu-chun¹(), YUAN Yan-ping¹, LIU Ting-ting¹, DUAN Hong-xin², LI Xiang-hu³

¹ School of Geographical Science, Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China
² Faculty of LandResources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093, China
³ Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China

Received:2023-05-18 Revised:2023-08-04 Published:2024-09-01 Online:2024-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1960—2020年鄱阳湖流域及周边29个国家气象站的连续观测资料,通过计算标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)并结合游程理论,研究分析了气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变。结果表明:①鄱阳湖流域月尺度气象干旱的发生频率为31.7%~34.8%,不同等级干旱发生频率的空间格局差异明显;②春、秋季节流域尺度SPEI呈现微弱下降趋势,干旱影响范围呈不显著的增加趋势,夏、冬季节情况与此相反;③就干旱区域性特征而言,鄱阳湖流域季节性气象干旱以全流域性干旱和局域性干旱为主(发生频率分别为29.5%和23.4%),区域性干旱和部分区域性干旱的发生频率(分别为10.7%和5.7%)相对较低;④游程理论揭示在过去的61 a间共发生50次流域尺度气象干旱事件,干旱事件的发生频次随干旱历时的增加显著减少,其中干旱历时最长的可达49个月;⑤流域尺度气象干旱事件的历时、峰值烈度以及总烈度的演变呈现较强的年代际波动特征;⑥干旱历时与总烈度之间存在显著的线性关系,与峰值烈度之间存在显著的幂函数关系,与平均烈度之间的相关关系不明显。这些研究结果明晰了鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征与干旱过程演变,为合理开展流域气象干旱影响评估和制定防范策略提供科学依据。

关键词: 气象干旱, 标准化降水蒸发指数, 游程理论, 干旱过程, 鄱阳湖流域

Abstract:

Based on observation data from 29 national meteorological stations within and surrounding Poyang Lake basin from 1960 to 2020, we investigated the regional characteristics and evolution of meteorological droughts in the basin by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in association with the run theory.The findings indicate that the frequency of monthly meteorological droughts in the Poyang Lake basin ranged from 31.7% to 34.8%. Moreover, the spatial patterns of drought frequency varied significantly across different drought levels.SPEI of the Poyang Lake basin exhibited a slight downward trend in spring and autumn, with the affected area showing a marginal increase. Conversely, opposite trend was observed in summer and winter. Regarding regional characteristics, basin-wide (29.5% occurrence) and local droughts (23.4% occurrence) were predominant seasonal droughts in the Poyang Lake basin, whereas regional (10.7% occurrence) and partial regional droughts (5.7% occurrence) occured less frequently. The run theory revealed that 50 meteorological drought events have occurred in the past 61 years. The frequency of these events decreased notably with increasing drought duration, with the longest drought lasting up to 49 months. The duration, peak intensity, and total intensity of drought events exhibited pronounced inter-decadal fluctuations. A significant linear correlation existed between drought duration and total intensity, while a notable power function relationship was observed between drought duration and peak intensity. However, no significant correlation was found between drought duration and average intensity. These findings have clarified the regional characteristics and evolutionary processes of meteorological droughts in the Poyang Lake basin, thereby providing a scientific basis for assessing drought impacts and formulating effective prevention strategies.

Key words: meteorological drought, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, run theory, drought process, Poyang Lake basin

中图分类号:

P426.616

叶许春, 袁燕萍, 刘婷婷, 段红鑫, 李相虎. 鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变[J]. 院报, 2024, 41(9): 19-26.

YE Xu-chun, YUAN Yan-ping, LIU Ting-ting, DUAN Hong-xin, LI Xiang-hu. Regional Characteristics and Evolution of Meteorological Droughts in Poyang Lake Basin[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2024, 41(9): 19-26.

图/表 8

图1 鄱阳湖流域自然概况

Fig.1 Location,meteorological features, and terrain map of the Poyang Lake basin

图2 基于SPEI干旱等级和游程理论的干旱事件提取及特征描述注:字母下标数字表示干旱次数。

Fig.2 Definition of drought characteristics using SPEI and the run theory

图3 1960—2020年流域尺度SPEI及不同等级气象干旱发生月次年际变化

Fig.3 Variations of basin scale SPEI and the frequency of meteorological droughts of different levels from 1960 to 2020

图4 1960—2020年不同等级干旱发生频率空间分布

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of the frequency of droughts of different levels during 1960-2020

图5 1960—2020年各季节干旱影响范围(站次比)及趋势变化

Fig.5 Drought affected area (station frequency ratio) and trends in different seasons during 1960-2020

表1 鄱阳湖流域季节尺度气象干旱的区域性特征及发生频率

Table 1 Regional characteristics and occurrence frequency of seasonal drought in Poyang Lake basin

干旱的区域性特征	区域性特征发生频率/%
干旱的区域性特征	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	平均值
无旱	26.2	21.3	34.4	41.0	30.7
局域性干旱	27.9	29.5	14.8	21.3	23.4
部分区域性干旱	1.6	8.2	8.2	4.9	5.7
区域性干旱	14.8	16.4	6.6	4.9	10.7
全流域性干旱	29.5	24.6	36.1	27.9	29.5

图6 1960—2010年流域尺度上干旱事件的历时、峰值烈度和总烈度的演变过程

Fig.6 Evolution of duration, peak intensity and total intensity of drought events in Poyang Lake basin during 1960-2010

图7 鄱阳湖流域尺度气象干旱事件的历时、烈度相关关系

Fig.7 Relations of drought duration vs. total intensity, peak intensity and average intensity of basin-scale droughts

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[3]	洪兴骏,郭生练,李天元. 基于Copula函数的鄱阳湖都昌站枯水多变量频率分析[J]. 院报, 2014, 31(12): 11-16.
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[5]	郭家力，郭生练，郭靖，陈华 . 鄱阳湖流域未来降水变化预测分析[J]. 院报, 2010, 27(8): 20-24.

鄱阳湖流域气象干旱的区域性特征及干旱过程演变

Regional Characteristics and Evolution of Meteorological Droughts in Poyang Lake Basin

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