基于气温预报的HS公式短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报评价与分析

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20160868

院报 ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 51-56.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20160868

基于气温预报的HS公式短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报评价与分析

付浩龙¹,罗玉峰²,李亚龙¹

1. 农业水利研究所,武汉 430010;
2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉 430072

收稿日期:2016-08-25 出版日期:2018-02-01 发布日期:2018-03-01
作者简介:付浩龙(1988-),男,江西共青城人,工程师,硕士,主要从事灌溉排水理论研究。E-mail:fuhaolong0110@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51409007,51309016); 中央级科学事业单位基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2017049/NS)

Evaluation and Analysis of Forecasting Short-term Daily ReferenceCrop Evapotranspiration by Hargreaves-Samani Equation Based onTemperature Forecast

FU Hao-long¹,LUO Yu-feng²,LI Ya-long¹

1.Department of Agricultural Water Conservancy, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010,China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Received:2016-08-25 Online:2018-02-01 Published:2018-03-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了开展基于气温预报Hargreaves-Samani(HS)公式短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报评价分析,收集南京站2002—2013年逐日观测气象数据和2012—2013年预见期7 d的逐日天气预报数据,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(PM)公式及2002—2012年气象数据计算逐日ET₀(参考作物腾发量),并对Hargreaves-Samani(HS)公式参数进行率定。采用率定后的HS公式开展2012—2013年预见期7 d的ET₀预报,并对预报结果进行精度评价和敏感性分析,结果表明:最低温度预报准确率要高于最高温度;校正后的HS公式各相关统计指标较好,HS公式ET₀计算校正值与PM公式计算值总体上一致,校正后的HS公式精度得到提高;ET₀预报精度随预见期增加而下降,且基于最低温预报的ET₀预报精度要高于最高温度;ET₀预报误差对低温预报的敏感性要小于高温预报,ET₀预报误差对夏季温度预报误差敏感性最大,而对冬季温度预报误差敏感性最小。

关键词: 参考作物腾发量, 气温预报, Hargreaves-Samani公式, 敏感性分析, 精度评价

Abstract: The aim of this research is to evaluate and analyze the forecasting of short-term daily reference crop evapotranspiration by Hargreaves-Samani equation based on temperature forecast. The observed daily meteorological data from 2002 to 2013 at Nanjing Station and the daily weather forecast data for 7-day forecast period from 2012 to 2013 are collected, and the daily ET₀ was calculated by using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (PM) equation according to daily meteorological data from 2002 to 2012. Furthermore, parameters in the HS equation are calibrated with 2002-2012 PM ET₀ values and the calibrated HS equation is adopted for forecasting the 7-day ET₀ with weather forecast data from 2012 to 2013. The precision and sensitivity of the forecast results are evaluated and analyzed. Results showed that the forecast result of ET₀ based on minimum temperature is more accurate than that on maximum temperature; the statistical indicators of calibrated HS equation are good, indicating the accuracy has improved; and the ET₀ estimated from calibrated HS equation are in accordance with the ET₀ estimated from PM equation, the accuracy of the HS equation has been significantly improved. Moreover, the accuracy of ET₀ declines with the increase of forecast period; the error in ET₀ is usually more sensitive to maximum temperature than that to minimum temperature, and the error in ET₀ is most sensitive to temperature forecasts in summer, while least sensitive to temperature forecasts in winter.

Key words: reference crop evapotranspiration, temperature forecast, Hargreaves-Samani equation, sensitivity analysis, precision evaluation

中图分类号:

S275.3

付浩龙,罗玉峰,李亚龙. 基于气温预报的HS公式短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报评价与分析[J]. 院报, 2018, 35(2): 51-56.

FU Hao-long,LUO Yu-feng,LI Ya-long. Evaluation and Analysis of Forecasting Short-term Daily ReferenceCrop Evapotranspiration by Hargreaves-Samani Equation Based onTemperature Forecast[J]. JOURNAL OF YANGTZE RIVER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTI, 2018, 35(2): 51-56.

[1]	丁泽霖, 魏新科, 王婧, 朱轩毅, 高昱芃. 水工结构材料模拟及CSG坝模型应用[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(12): 181-187.
[2]	毕彪, 钱云楷, 艾宪锋, 赵廷宁. 基于HYDRUS-1D模拟的降雨入渗条件下VG模型参数敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(7): 36-41.
[3]	赖韩, 王瑞骏, 李阳, 熊小斌, 张旭, 郁宁宁, 雷妍. 胶凝砂砾石筑坝材料VC值试验敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(3): 142-148.
[4]	吴光东, 许继军, Hoshin Gupta, 张潇. 新安江流域abcd水量平衡模型及参数敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2019, 36(7): 23-27.
[5]	聂兵其, 汤明高, 邵山, 马新建, 李云杰, 杨何. 基于灰色关联法的涉水边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2019, 36(1): 123-126.
[6]	王文坡, 韩爱果, 任光明, 杨磊, 黄文芳. 四川省普格县滑坡孕灾环境因子敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2018, 35(9): 63-67.
[7]	邵山, 汤明高, 聂兵其, 李云杰, 王飞龙, 杨何. 宣汉地区降雨型滑坡空间发育规律及敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2018, 35(5): 41-46.
[8]	冉涛, 毛江南, 梅松华, 王巍伟, 谭利华. 基于正交试验法的重力锚基坑岩土参数敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2018, 35(1): 101-106.
[9]	张佳, 霍艾迪, 张骏. 基于SWAT模型的长江源区巴塘河流域径流模拟[J]. 院报, 2016, 33(5): 18-22.
[10]	王国富,王丹,路林海,孙捷城. 基于改进西原模型的厚冲积地层基坑结构回弹参数敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2016, 33(10): 84-92.
[11]	朱烨,方秀琴,王凯,朱求安. 基于SWAT模型的延河流域月径流量模拟分析[J]. 院报, 2016, 33(10): 41-45.
[12]	范新宇,罗学东,李津玮,李旋,梅年峰. 寒区矿山高陡边坡稳定性影响因素的敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2015, 32(9): 58-62.
[13]	赵永虎, 刘高, 毛举, 陈龙飞, 魏蒙恩. 基于灰色关联度的黄土边坡稳定性因素敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2015, 32(7): 94-98.
[14]	曾琼佩, 王义刚, 黄惠明, 周晶晶, 陈橙. 感潮河段桥梁壅水计算方法比较及敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2015, 32(7): 58-63.
[15]	吕弯弯,顾圣平,何蕾,刘欣欣,赵一梦. 基于蒙特卡罗法的土石坝洪水漫顶风险率计算及其敏感性分析[J]. 院报, 2015, 32(5): 48-52.

基于气温预报的HS公式短期逐日参考作物腾发量预报评价与分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Forecasting Short-term Daily ReferenceCrop Evapotranspiration by Hargreaves-Samani Equation Based onTemperature Forecast

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价