关键词: 滑坡, 诱发因素, 滞后性, 周期性, 变形预测, 多元时序模型

Abstract: Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are major external factors inducing landslide. Hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation are important influence factors of landslide displacement. In this paper, a multivariate time series model with rainfall and reservoir water level variation as impact factors of displacement prediction was established. The effect of hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation on the cumulative displacement of landslide was considered. Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area was taken as a case study. Firstly, gray model was employed to extract the trend term displacement; and then the lagged variations of rainfall and reservoir water level were used to predict the displacement of the periodic term; finally, the predicted value of accumulative displacement is obtained by superposing the displacements of the trend term and the periodic term. Results prove that the dynamic effects of inducing factors on the cumulative displacement of landslide could be well reflected by this model. It has high prediction accuracy, with the average absolute error 1.97%.

Key words: landslide, inducing factor, hysteresis, periodicity, displacement prediction, multivariate time series model