JOURNAL OF YANGTZE RIVER SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTI ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (7): 29-33.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2014.07.005

• ENGINEERING SAFETY AND DISASTER PREVENTION • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on the Probability of Landslide Failure by Monte-Carlo Method

LIAO Jing-gao1,2,3,ZHAO Qi-hua2,3,LIU Yu2,3,CHEN Huan2,3   

  1. 1.Geological Team 202,Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Geological and Mineral Exploration, Yibing 644002,China;
    2.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;
    3.College of Environment and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
  • Received:2013-04-27 Revised:2014-07-03 Online:2014-07-01 Published:2014-07-04

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Abstract: Landslide is the most common geological disaster with the most severe damages. By ordinary stability calculation we can only obtain the stability, and by using Monte-Carlo method we can determine the failure probability of landslide, in which case, however, the values of c and φ are regarded as to obey normal distribution. In fact, the values of c and φ obey different distributions under different circumstances. In view of this, we discuss the calculation of failure probability with different c and φ values in different distributions. Results reveal that the calculated failure probability in consideration of variation coefficient and skewness coefficient is smaller than that not considering variation coefficient and skewness coefficient. And the calculation error under these two circumstances ranges from 10% to 25%. By this research, the accuracy of failure probability calculation is enhanced.

Key words: landslide, Monte-Carlo, failure probability, normal distribution, lognormal distribution

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