Abstract: On the basis of traditional slice method and assuming that the deformation of slice is continuous,a dynamic prediction model for the evolution of slopes is developed. In the model,the groundwater level variation caused by rainfall is taken into account,and the dissipation of the excess pore-fluid pressure in the saturated layer is governed by Terzaghi’s one-dimensional consolidation theory. It is believed that the speed and deformation of the sliding mass are of inhomogeneity,and the changes of inter-slice forces are caused by the deformation of slice. Through dynamics analysis of landslide using Newton’s laws of motion,the new model can simulate the whole sliding process and predict the maximum sliding speed and maximum sliding distance. The model is adopted to simulate the movement process of Qianjiangpin landslide,and the result of computer simulation is in well accordance with actual cases.

Key words: slope , prediction , velocity of landslide , dynamics , slice method