Abstract: To solve the reliability issues of evaluator’s subjective estimates when evaluating programme risk, we introduced reliability analysis into programme risk estimation to improve the FAHP (Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process) evaluation method. We substituted the interval estimation of evaluators with point estimation, and quantified the estimation interval given by the estimator according to the principle of set-valued statistics, thus obtaining the degree of reliability of evaluator’s subjective estimate. On this basis, we built the FAHP risk evaluation model and apply it to the evaluation of a case of road network around a hydropower reservoir. Results showed that the risk level of the programme is 0.363, which belongs to small risk.

Key words: reliability analysis, FAHP, risk evaluation model, programme