基于凸集比例因子和WOA-Kriging模型的重力坝非概率可靠性分析

刘要来; 王堡生; 周红波; 赵二峰; 李章寅

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

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raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3) : 164-170. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

水工结构与材料

基于凸集比例因子和WOA-Kriging模型的重力坝非概率可靠性分析

刘要来 ¹ ,
王堡生 ¹ ,
周红波 ¹ ,
赵二峰 ² ,
李章寅 ²

作者信息 +

Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Convex Set Scale Factor and the WOA-Kriging Model

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为了实现在统计资料匮乏时也能进行重力坝的可靠性分析,构建了仅需要不确定参数上下限的重力坝非概率可靠度评估方法。通过内切椭球模型描述了不确定参数的相关关系,引入比例因子将非概率可靠度计算模型转化为有约束的优化问题,利用Kriging模型对于高度非线性函数的适用性拟合重力坝单元功能函数,在此基础上,通过鲸鱼优化算法进行可靠度的寻优。经过实例分析计算,非概率可靠度计算方法与规范法得出的坝段的抗滑稳定均处于可靠状态,两种方法的结论相同,这验证了基于凸集比例因子和WOA-Kriging模型的重力坝非概率可靠度计算方法可以有效分析重力坝的可靠性。

Abstract

To achieve reliable analysis of gravity dams with limited statistical data, a non-probabilistic reliability assessment method was developed. This method requires only the upper and lower bounds of uncertain parameters. The correlated relationship of these parameters was described using an inscribed ellipsoid model. By introducing a scaling factor, the non-probabilistic reliability calculation model was transformed into a constrained optimization problem. The Kriging model, known for its effectiveness in fitting highly nonlinear functions, was employed to model the functional behavior of gravity dam elements. Additionally, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) was used for reliability optimization. Case validation confirmed that the non-probabilistic reliability calculation method, based on the convex set scaling factor and the WOA-Kriging model, effectively analyzes the reliability of gravity dams.

导出引用

刘要来, 王堡生, 周红波, 等. 基于凸集比例因子和WOA-Kriging模型的重力坝非概率可靠性分析[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2025, 42(3): 164-170 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

LIU Yao-lai, WANG Bao-sheng, ZHOU Hong-bo, et al. Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Gravity Dam Based on Convex Set Scale Factor and the WOA-Kriging Model[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2025, 42(3): 164-170 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20231174

中图分类号： TV642.3 (混凝土重力坝)

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为解决概率可靠性方法分析受限于重力坝不确定参数的统计信息较难获取,及其功能函数高度非线性且较难用显式解析表达式给予刻画等问题,构建了基于不确定参数界限的重力坝单元非概率可靠性(Non-probabilistic Reliability,N-PR)指标计算模型,在此基础上,融合Kriging模型较强预测和拟合优势,发展了一种基于Kriging模型的重力坝N-PR指标计算方法。经实例考证,所给模型与方法可有效规避概率可靠性分析中要求不确定参数随机变化且计算结果对参数高度敏感的局限,较好适应了重力坝功能函数高度非线性甚至难以显式表达的特点,可较深入分析重力坝可靠性。

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In the reliability analysis for gravity dam, statistical information is challenging to be obtained by probability reliability analysis due to the limitations posed by uncertain parameters, and the functions are highly nonlinear hence are difficult to be described with analytical expression. In view of this, a non-probabilistic reliability(N-PR) index calculation model of gravity dam in consideration of uncertain parameter ranges is constructed. On this basis,the calculation method of N-PR index for gravity dam in association with Kriging model’s strong prediction and fitting advantages is built.A practical engineering example demonstrates that the present method effectively overcomes the limits that the uncertain parameters shall vary randomly in probability reliability analysis and the calculation results are highly sensitive to the parameters. The method also adapts to the highly nonlinear function of gravity dam.

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