“阶跃型”滑坡位移监测动态预警系统

贲琰棋; 易武; 魏兆亨; 周迎; 刘伟; 邓欣雨

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20230139

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raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7) : 148-157. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20230139

工程安全与灾害防治

“阶跃型”滑坡位移监测动态预警系统

贲琰棋^1,2, 易武^1,2, 魏兆亨^1,2, 周迎³, 刘伟⁴, 邓欣雨⁵

作者信息 +

Dynamic Warning System of Displacement Monitoring for Step-like Landslide

BEN Yan-qi^1,2, YI Wu^1,2, WEI Zhao-heng^1,2, ZHOU Ying³, LIU Wei⁴, DENG Xin-yu⁵

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

“阶跃型”演化规律是滑坡在等速变形阶段受外界因素影响表现出的一种波动特性,具有变形周期长、机制复杂、临灾预警难度大的特点。基于“阶跃型”滑坡变形-时间曲线的特征和规律,通过引入“一个降雨过程”定义滑坡监测序列的多期降雨区间,将预警过程划分为前期+当期降雨和当期降雨两种模式,以诱因-时间-空间作为滑坡预警的重要指标,建立了滑坡综合预警判据模型,据此提出设计麻池村1号滑坡综合动态分级预警系统的方法。并结合麻池村1号滑坡的地质条件、监测数据等信息,深入分析了滑坡的变形演化规律及预警阈值。结果表明:①滑坡变形破坏模式为牵引式,属于典型的降雨诱发的“阶跃型”堆积层滑坡; ②前期降雨有效持时为10 d,前期+当期降雨模式下的降雨阈值分别为24、32 mm,当期降雨模式下滑坡的的降雨阈值为37 mm,滑坡的位移速率阈值为12 mm;③以降雨量、位移速率到达阈值时为Ⅲ级黄色预警中心面(线),构建滑坡的综合动态分级预警系统,将滑坡预警从传统的“阈值预警”升级为“过程预警”,使得预警更具针对性。

Abstract

The step-like evolution of landslide represents the fluctuating behavior of landslides influenced by external factors during the isokinetic deformation phase. Step-like landslide is characterized by extended deformation cycles, intricate mechanisms, and challenges in disaster early-warning. By analyzing the deformation-time curves of step-like landslide, we introduced the concept of “one rainfall process” and defined multiple rainfall intervals in the monitoring sequence. Subsequently, we categorized the warning process into two modes: the previous rainfall-plus the current rainfall pattern, and the current rainfall pattern. With cause-time-space as significant indices for landslide warning, we established a holistic landslide early-warning criterion model, and designed a dynamic early-warning system for Landslide No. 1 at Machi Village as a case study. By correlating geological conditions and monitoring data with a profound analysis of deformation evolution patterns and warning thresholds, we observed that: 1) The landslide deformation mode is predominantly traction-related, demonstrating a typical rainfall-triggered step-like behavior. 2) The effective early rainfall duration is 10 days. The rainfall thresholds are 24 mm and 32 mm respectively under the previous plus current rainfall mode, and 37 mm under the current rainfall mode. 3) With the threshold values for rainfall and displacement rate as the Grade III yellow early-warning central boundary, we established a comprehensive dynamic grading early-warning system that transitions from traditional threshold warning to process warning. This shift enhances the precision and efficiency of landslide prediction and management.

导出引用

贲琰棋, 易武, 魏兆亨, 周迎, 刘伟, 邓欣雨. “阶跃型”滑坡位移监测动态预警系统[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2024, 41(7): 148-157 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20230139

BEN Yan-qi, YI Wu, WEI Zhao-heng, ZHOU Ying, LIU Wei, DENG Xin-yu. Dynamic Warning System of Displacement Monitoring for Step-like Landslide[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(7): 148-157 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20230139

中图分类号： TV697.23 P642.22

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