关键词: 水资源环境, 经济发展, 耦合关联度, 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 弹性预测法, 济南市

Abstract: The coupling mechanism between water resources environment and economic growth in Jinan City is studied quantitatively and qualitatively by integrating coupling correlation degree model with environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Meanwhile, the development prospect between the two is predicted using elasticity forecast method. Result illustrates that coupling relationship exists between water resources environment and economic growth in Jinan from 2005 to 2017. Under current conditions, the coupling between domestic water use as well as sewage and economic growth is higher than that between industry water use and economic growth. In addition, the concepts of potential risk control indicators and key monitoring indicators are introduced according to EKC trends and forecast results. Potential risk control indicators include domestic COD and industrial NH₃-N, while key monitoring indicators are domestic NH₃-N, wastewater, as well as industrial and domestic water use. The results are expected to provide basis for promoting the coordinated development between regional economy and water resources environment in Jinan.

Key words: water resources environment, economic development, coupling correlation degree, Environmental Kuznets curve, elasticity forecast method, Jinan City