针对太湖流域水环境质量风险评价问题,提出了评价指标体系。根据2011—2015年7个断面的实测数据对现有指标进行筛选,计算各指标的属性重要度,并选取较为重要的4个水质指标和富营养化指数;对实测水质数据和地表水环境质量标准等级,采用Shannon熵和云模型相结合的方法,利用最大隶属度原则得到太湖流域各年水环境质量风险评价的结果。结果表明该流域水环境质量处于中等风险水平,需要采取相应措施降低发生水污染事件的风险。评价结果可以为太湖流域的水质改善提供一定的科学依据。
Abstract
An index system for the risk assessment of water environment quality of Taihu Lake drainage basin is put forward. According to the measured data of seven sections during 2011-2015, we calculate the attribute importance of each index and select four important indexes together with the eutrophication indicator. Furthermore, in the light of measured water quality data and criterion for water quality classification, we obtain the results of water environment quality risk assessment for Taihu Lake drainage basin by combining Shannon entropy and cloud model under the principle of maximum degree of membership. Results reveal that the water environment quality of the Taihu Lake drainage basin is at medium risk level. Corresponding countermeasures need be taken to reduce the risk of water pollution.The research results offer scientific basis for improving the water quality in the Taihu lake drainage basin.
关键词
Shannon熵 /
云模型 /
水环境 /
富营养化 /
风险评价
Key words
Shannon entropy /
cloud model /
water environment /
eutrophication /
risk assessment
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 李德毅,孟海军,史雪梅.隶属云和隶属云发生器. 计算机研究与发展,1995, 32(6):15-20.
[2]李德毅,刘常显. 论正态云模型的普适性.中国工程科学,2004,6(8):28-34.
[3]LI D, LIU C, GAN W. A New Cognitive Model: Cloud Model. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 2009, 24(3): 357-375.
[4]LI D, CHEUNG D, SHI X, et al. Uncertainty Reasoning Based on Cloud Models in Controllers. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 1998,5(3): 99-123.
[5]WANG Dong, LIU Deng-feng, DING Hao, et al. A Cloud Model-based Approach for Water Quality Assessment. Environmental Research, 2016, 148: 24-35.
[6]WANG Mei, TANG De-shan, BAI Yi-fan, et al. A Compound Cloud Model for Hamoniousness Assessment of Water Allocation. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75(11): 1-14.
[7]刘登峰,王 栋,丁 昊,等. 水体富营养化评价的熵-云耦合模型. 水利学报, 2014,45(10):1214-1222.
[8]杜湘瑜,尹全军,黄科棣,等.基于云模型的定性定量转换方法及其应用. 系统工程与电子技术, 2008,30(4):772-776.
[9]杨 文.基于云模型的宁海县地表水环境质量评价.金华:浙江师范大学,2013.
[10]丁 昊,王 栋. 基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法.环境科学学报,2013,33(1):251-257.
[11]方国华,黄显峰.多目标决策理论、方法及其应用. 北京:科学出版社, 2011.
[12]丁慧敏,唐德善,李奥典,等. 基于突变级数的太湖流域水生态风险评价.水电能源科学,2015,33(6):39-42.
[13]吴义锋,吕锡武,何雪梅,等. 不确定信息下的水体污染因子粗糙分析.系统工程理论与实践,2006, 26(4):136-140.
[14]张展羽,俞双恩.水土资源规划与管理 . 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2009.
[15]杨理智,张 韧,洪 梅,等.基于云模型的我国西南边境水资源安全风险评估.长江流域资源与环境,2014, 23(增1):1-5.
PDF(1640 KB)
