基于嵌套主成分回归模型的长江源区径流重建

姜晓萱; 王文卓; 袁喆; 霍军军; 周涛

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20241180

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raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3) : 202-210. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20241180

长江源科学考察与研究专栏

基于嵌套主成分回归模型的长江源区径流重建

姜晓萱 ¹^,² ,
王文卓 ³ ,
袁喆 ¹^,²^,⁴ ,
霍军军 ¹^,²^,⁴ ,
周涛 ¹^,²^,⁴

作者信息 +

Reconstruction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yangtze River Based on Nested Principal Component Regression Modeling

JIANG Xiao-xuan ¹^,² ,
WANG Wen-zhuo ³ ,
YUAN Zhe ¹^,²^,⁴ ,
HUO Jun-jun ¹^,²^,⁴ ,
ZHOU Tao ¹^,²^,⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

基于嵌套主成分回归模型,重建了长江源区公元1433—2002年的天然年径流序列,探讨了其历史变化特征与干湿事件演变及周期性波动。利用树轮数据及径流观测数据,结合模型评估指标(CRSQ、VRSQ、RE、CE),证明了该模型的重建精确性。研究结果表明,在过去570 a中,长江源区年径流量整体呈显著波动,识别出6个湿润期与9个干旱期,其中1451—1510年和1596—1645年是最长的湿润期,1848—1903年是持续时间最长的干旱期。重建时期的干旱与长江流域青藏高原等地区的干旱时期较为吻合,表明长江源区重建径流变化能够反映大尺度的气候波动。此外,长江源区重建径流序列存在4~8、16~32、50~100、100~200 a的显著周期性波动,可能受ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)、东亚夏季风(EASM)变化、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)及大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)共同驱动,也反映了全球气候长期变化及青藏高原冰川与积雪消融趋势的影响。

Abstract

This study employs a nested principal component regression model to reconstruct the natural annual runoff series for the Yangtze River source region from 1433 to 2002. It explores historical variability, the evolution of wet and dry events, and periodic fluctuations. Using tree-ring data and observed runoff data, the model’s accuracy is validated through evaluation indicators (CRSQ, VRSQ, RE, and CE). Results indicate that over the past 570 years, the annual runoff in the Yangtze River source region has experienced significant fluctuations. Six wet periods and nine dry periods are identified, with the longest wet periods occurring from 1451 to 1510 and from 1596 to 1645, and the longest dry period spanning from 1848 to 1903. The dry periods during the reconstruction period align with droughts on the Tibetan Plateau and in other areas of the Yangtze River basin, suggesting that the reconstructed runoff changes in the Yangtze River source region reflect large-scale climate fluctuations. Furthermore, the reconstructed runoff series for the Yangtze River source region exhibits significant periodic fluctuations at intervals of 4-8 years, 16-32 years, 50-100 years, and 100-200 years. These fluctuations are likely driven by the combined effects of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and also reflect the impact of global climate change and the trends of glacier and snowmelt on the Tibetan Plateau.

导出引用

姜晓萱, 王文卓, 袁喆, 等. 基于嵌套主成分回归模型的长江源区径流重建[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2025, 42(3): 202-210 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20241180

JIANG Xiao-xuan, WANG Wen-zhuo, YUAN Zhe, et al. Reconstruction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yangtze River Based on Nested Principal Component Regression Modeling[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2025, 42(3): 202-210 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20241180

中图分类号： P333

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Gen-xu

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Guo-dong

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Hai-tao

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https://doi.org/10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010139

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摘要

依据近年发表的新成果,对中国过去千年干湿的年至百年尺度变化特征进行了总结梳理与对比分析,综合评估了20世纪干湿变幅的历史地位。主要结论是：① 根据历史文献记载重建的东中部各区干湿序列在1400年以后均达高信度,但其前因存在记录缺失,仅有半数时段的重建结果达高信度。在东北及内蒙古东部,根据不同地点湖沼沉积物记录揭示的区域干湿百年尺度变化特征在多数时段不一致。在西部的黄土高原、河西走廊、新疆中北部、青藏高原东北部和东南部等地区,利用不同地点树轮资料重建的干湿序列显示的干湿变化特征在区内一致性高。② 过去千年中国各地干湿变化均存在显著的年际、年代际和百年尺度周期。其中准2.5 a、60~80 a和110~120 a等尺度的周期为所有地区共有;3.5~5.0 a、20~35 a等尺度周期则主要发生在东北、东中部地区、黄土高原和青藏高原;而准45 a周期则只发生在东北和东中部地区（均超过90%信度水平）;各区域间的干湿变化位相并不同步。③ 尽管已发现青藏高原东北部20世纪很可能是过去3000 a最湿的世纪之一,但其他大多数区域的重建结果显示：20世纪的干湿变幅在年代际尺度上均未超出其前各个时段的变率范围。

(ZHENG

Jing-yun

, ZHANG

Xue-zhen

, LIU

Yang

, et al. The Assessment on Hydroclimatic Changes of Different Regions in China at Multi-scale during the Past Millennium[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1432-1450. (in Chinese))

https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202007008

本文引用 [1] 摘要

Based on the latest hydroclimatic reconstructions in peer-reviewed scientific journals, we summarize the multi-scale pattern on hydroclimatic changes and assess whether or not the variability of the 20th century is unusual in the context of the past millennium for different regions of China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In the central-eastern China, the dry/wet series reconstructed from historical documents after 1400 have high confidence level, while before 1400, the reconstructions only in half of the period have high confidence due to the shortage of records. In northeastern China and eastern Inner Mongolia, centennial-scale reconstructions from lake sediments at multiple sites are in low agreement in most of periods. In Loess Plateau, Hexi Corridor, central to northern Xinjiang, northeastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, hydroclimatic reconstructions from tree rings have robust agreement within the same region. (2) All sub-regions of China show significant cycles with 90% confidence level at inter-annual, inter-decadal and centennial scales. The cycles of 2.5 a, 60-80 a and 110-120 a are detected over all the regions, while the cycles of 3.5-5.0 a and 20-35 a mainly occur in the Loess Plateau, Tibetan Plateau, northeastern and central-eastern China. The cycle of quasi-45 a only occurs in northeastern and central-eastern China. Moreover, the hydroclimatic changes are out of phase in different regions. (3) The 20th century is one of the wettest centuries in the past 3000 years in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, most series from other regions show that the inter-decadal hydroclimatic variability of the 20th century does not exceed the amplitude of natural variability, which had ever occurred during the past millennium.

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https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00116

摘要

利用亚洲季风区帕默尔干旱指数（PDSI）重建格点数据集（Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas，MADA）中长江源及附近地区的5个格点序列，通过PDSI与长江源区径流量的相关分析，发现5个格点的第一主成分（PC1）与长江源区夏季（6—8月）平均径流量的相关性最大（r=0.609，N=50，α<0.001）。由此，重建了1300—2005年长江源区夏季径流量变化，并运用独立验证法对重建结果的可靠性进行了检验，运用小波分析方法对重建径流序列进行周期分析。结果表明：近706 a，长江源区经历了显著的丰水期13个、枯水期15个，其中持续时间最长的丰水期为1513—1573年，持续时间最长的枯水期为1389—1414年；重建序列主要存在2~6、10~13、20~26、30~50、50~70 a的显著周期振荡。重建序列与海表温度的相关性表明，长江源区径流变化可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）、大西洋年际振荡（AMO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）、太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）等有关。

(WANG

Shu

, LI

Jin-jian

, QIN

Ning-sheng

. Runoff Reconstruction for the Source of the Yangtze River over the Past 706 Years Based on Historical PDSI Dataset[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2019, 39(3): 126-135. (in Chinese))

https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2018.00116

本文引用 [1] 摘要

Five grid sequences near the source of the Yangtze River were selected from the reconstructed PDSI gridded datasets in the Asian monsoon region(Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas,MADA). Based on the correlation analysis between PDSI and the runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River, it was found that the first principal component (PC1) of the five grids has the largest correlation (r=0.609,N=50, α<0.001) with the average runoff in the summer (June-August). A record of summer runoff at the source of Yangtze River from 1300-2005 was then reconstructed, and the reliability of the reconstruction equation was tested by the independent verification method. As indicated by the reconstruction, 13 periods of high flow and 15 periods of low flow occurred during the previous 706 years. The longest periods of high flow occurred during 1513-1573, while the longest period of low flow occurred during 1389-1414. Wavelet analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed sequence mainly has significant periodic oscillations of 2-6 years, 10-13 years, 20-26 years, 30-50 years and 50-70 years. Correlation analysis between reconstruction and global sea surface temperature indicated that the runoff variation might be related to ENSO, AMO, NAO, PDO and so on.