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基于多源降雨数据的中游城市群极端降雨特征和风险分析
Characterization and Risk Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Yangtze River Midstream Urban Agglomerations Based on Multi-Source Rainfall Data
长江中游城市群是位于我国中部的特大型城市群,在经济社会发展中发挥着重要作用。为探究变化环境下中游城市群的降雨特征和风险,对CMFD、MSWEP 和CN05.1这3种降雨数据在中游城市群的适用性进行了评估,选择中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集CMFD进行降雨特征分析,同时考虑强降雨量、暴雨日数、高程、坡度、人口、土地利用对区域城市化快速发展前后暴雨灾害风险进行分析。结果表明:包括省会城市在内的高度城市化区域在过去的40 a短历时暴雨发生频率和强度增加,城市群南部强降雨量、暴雨日数存在显著增长趋势,包括江西省新余、抚州、南昌、九江等区域;随着城市化的进程,人口向中心城市聚焦,中高暴雨风险区域增加,环鄱阳湖都市圈中高风险区占比明显增加。为应对区域暴雨风险,需集成多学科多部门城市监测数据,推进高精度多尺度监测-预报-预警系统研发与应用,加强城市化对局地气候和极端降雨影响的机理研究,协调灰-绿-蓝措施以增强城市气候适应性和韧性。
The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is a mega city cluster located in the central part of China, playing a crucial role in economic and social development. To explore precipitation characteristics and risks in this urban agglomeration in changing environment, we evaluated the applicability of three precipitation datasets: CMFD, MSWEP, and CN05.1, and selected the CMFD (China Meteorological Forcing Dataset) for analysis. We analyzed the changes in rainstorm hazard risks before and after the rapid urbanization by considering factors such as rainstorm amount, rainstorm duration, elevation, slope, population, and land use. Findings reveal that highly urbanized areas, particularly provincial capital cities, have experienced more frequent occurrences and higher intensities of short-duration rainstorms over the past four decades. The amount and duration of rainstorms in the southern part of the urban agglomeration increased significantly, affecting cities like Xinyu, Fuzhou, Nanchang, and Jiujiang in Jiangxi Province. With the progression of urbanization, populations have concentrated in central cities. Consequently, medium- and high-risk areas for rainstorms have increased, especially in the Poyang Lake Metropolitan Area. To effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with regional rainstorms, we recommend the following measures: integrate multidisciplinary and multidepartment urban monitoring data to gain a comprehensive understanding of precipitation patterns and their impacts; promote research, development, and application of high-precision multiscale monitoring-forecasting-warning systems to enhance early warning capabilities; strengthen research on the mechanisms of urbanization affecting local climate and extreme rainfall events; coordinate grey (infrastructure), green (natural systems), and blue (water bodies) measures to enhance the climate adaptation and resilience of cities.
城市化 / 极端降雨特征 / 风险分析 / 中游城市群 / CMFD
urbanization / extreme rainfall characteristics / risk analysis / urban agglomeration / CMFD
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Changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall caused by climate change have attracted wide attention around the world. Researching the evolution law of extreme rainfall is of great significance for regional flood control and water resources management. According to rainfall data in 54 years (1960-2013) at 16 meteorological stations in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province and its surrounding areas, we analyzed the spatial evolution of six extreme rainfall indicators recommended by the World Meteorological Organization by linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall method, and moving-<i>t</i> test, and the spatial distribution pattern by inverse distance interpolation method based on ArcGIS10.2. Results manifest that total rainfall volume indicator PRCPTOT presented a downward trend; three indices reflecting the magnitude of extreme rainfall, namely, SDII, RX5day, and R95p, displayed increasing trends, among which RX5day increased significantly; R10mm and CWD, which reflect the frequency of extreme rainfall, both showed decreasing trends, of which R10mm decreased apparently in particular. In terms of spatial distribution, the six indicators are of high spatial heterogeneity: the magnitude and frequency of rainfall were high in northeast Zhaotong, but alleviated in central Zhaotong, and relatively low in the southwest. In addition, extreme rainfall indicators were negatively correlated with elevation: extreme rainfall mainly happened in area of low altitude.
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The old and new water problems of Yangtze River intertwined as disturbed by intensifying human activities and increasingly frequent climate change. In line with the new requirements posed by the 14<sup>th</sup> Five-Year Plan and the Great Protection of the Yangtze River, we analyzed the basic situation of Yangtze River’s four water problems from a macroscopic view: water resources problem involving local water shortage, insufficient management performance and others, water environment problem including excessive total phosphorus emission and unclear characteristics of persistent organic pollutants, water ecology problem such as sharp decline in ecological capacity and biological resources, as well as water-related disaster problem like frequent extreme floods and droughts. We further revealed the external driving influences of climate change factors such as temperature increase and human factors such as hydropower development, shipping, agricultural activities, and urbanization on the development and change of the four water problems. We also expounded the internal connection and feedback mechanism among the four water problems in expectation of enhancing people’s understanding of the coupling relationship among the four water problems and improving the ability of managing the Yangtze River.
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在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面：①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。
In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, urban floods frequently cause serious social problems and economic losses. Flood risk assessment as the main content of urban flood management has received extensive attention. This article first presents the conceptual framework of urban flood risk assessment and the function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It then reviews their main research contents respectively, analyzes the strengths and limitations of different research methods in the perspective of urban flood risk management. We conclude that the development trends of urban flood risk assessment include the following four aspects: 1) With regard to flood hazard evaluation, developing the two-dimensional hydraulics flood inundation model incorporating different sources of floods in urban areas such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal floods is imperative for urban flood risk assessment. 2) Exposure evaluation is moving towards more refined and dynamic evaluation with the support of big data and GIS. 3) Vulnerability assessment is shifting from the quantitative evaluation of the physical dimension to multi-dimensional assessments, such as social, economic, cultural, environmental, and others. 4) In addition, semi-quantitative and quantitative urban flood risk assessment combined with climate change and urban expansion considerations under multiple scenarios is also an important component of future urban flood management. |
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