分析三峡库区(重庆段)近10 a的土地利用类型及碳储量的空间格局,并模拟未来10 a不同情景下土地变化趋势、预测碳储量变化,有利于促进区域土地利用格局的优化、合理生态政策的制定。利用InVEST模型,选取13个驱动因子,分析三峡库区(重庆段)在2010—2020年及不同发展情景下2030年的土地利用变化趋势,并结合PLUS模型评估其碳储量状况。结果表明:①2010—2020年三峡库区(重庆段)土地利用变化主要表现为耕地、草地和湿地向林地、建设用地及水域的快速转移;2010年、2020年碳储量分别为426.89×10⁶、425.51×10⁶ t,呈下降趋势,总量减少了1.38×10⁶ t;②碳储量分布具有空间分异性,总体表现为西低东高、南低北高、库首>库尾,碳储量空间变化与地类变化具有较高的一致性;土地利用空间格局演变的贡献度最高的驱动因素是社会经济因子,其中人口、GDP最为突出;③到2030年,自然发展情景和城镇发展情景下碳储量分别减少了0.76×10⁶、8.98×10⁶ t,生态保护情景下增加了3.72×10⁶ t。高碳密度的地类向低碳密度地类转移是导致碳储量减少的主要原因,因此,未来应形成平衡、协调、低碳的土地利用空间格局,规划城市增长边界,重点保障巫山山系、大巴山系、武陵山系等林草高碳储量区,推行尾库区复林复草,保障库区碳汇功能。

Analyzing the spatial patterns of land use and carbon stocks in the Three Gorges reservoir area (Chongqing section) over the past decade, and simulating land change trends and predicting carbon stock variations under different scenarios for the next decade, can significantly aid in optimizing regional land use patterns and formulating effective ecological policies. We employed the InVEST model and examined 13 driving factors to analyze land use changes in the Three Gorges reservoir area (Chongqing section) from 2010 to 2020 and to predict trends for 2030 under various development scenarios. We also assessed carbon stock status using the PLUS model. Results reveal that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, land use changes in the Three Gorges reservoir area (Chongqing section) were primarily characterized by the conversion of arable land, grassland, and wetlands to forest land, construction land, and water bodies. Carbon stocks in 2010 and 2020 were 426.89×10⁶and 425.51×10⁶ t, respectively, indicating a decline of 1.38×10⁶ t. (2) Carbon stock distribution exhibited spatial differentiation, with lower levels in the west and higher levels in the east, lower in the south and higher in the north, and higher at the reservoir’s head compared to its tail. The spatial changes in carbon stocks closely aligned with changes in land types. Socio-economic factors, particularly population and GDP, contributed most significantly to the spatial pattern evolution. (3) By 2030, carbon stocks are projected to decrease by 0.76×10⁶ and 8.98×10⁶ t under natural scenario and urban development scenario, respectively, but increase by 3.72×10⁶ t under ecological protection scenario. The primary cause of carbon stock reduction is the transition from high-carbon-density land types to low-carbon-density land types. To address these issues, future strategies should focus on creating a balanced, coordinated, and low-carbon spatial land-use pattern, planning urban growth boundaries, and prioritizing the protection of high carbon-storage areas such as the Wushan Mountain System, Daba Mountain System, and Wuling Mountain System. Additionally, restoring forests and grasslands in reservoir tail areas is crucial to preserving carbon sink functions.