三峡区间面积在长江上游的流域面积占比5.6%,但在三峡入库洪水组成中,区间形成的洪水占比可达10%以上,可见区间暴雨洪水是水库防洪安全必须考量的重要因素。采用2007—2011年三峡入库流量,上游边界寸滩和武隆站实测流量资料,建立了基于HEC-HMS的三峡区间洪水模拟模型,用于分析区间暴雨洪水与入库洪水的关系。根据入库洪水来源组成分析和资料特点,提出分类调参、分期检验的区间洪水建模方案:对以上游来水为主型洪水,率定汇流参数;对区间降水贡献较大型洪水,率定产流参数;对2012年以后的模拟洪水过程,以三峡水库运行实录发布的洪水过程线为比对基准。结果表明:模型精度良好,率定期和验证期洪峰流量相对误差在±20%以内,峰现时间误差＜3 h;经与长江三峡工程运行实录比对,模型适用于模拟2012年后的三峡入库洪水过程。以20160626场次洪水为典型,分析该场区间洪水对入库洪水的峰值贡献率达27.2%,使得峰现时间提前16 h。研究成果可用于三峡区间洪水的影响研究,也可作为区间流域洪水模拟模型建模方案的技术参考。
Abstract
The Three Gorges Interval (TGI) accounts for 5.6% of the upper Yangtze River basin area. However, floods originating from this region constitute over 10% of the floods in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Hence, heavy rainfall-induced flood is an important factor that must be taken into consideration in ensuring reservoir flood control safety. Based on TGR inflow data during 2007-2011 and flow data from upstream Cuntan and Wulong stations, we developed a HEC-HMS flood simulation model to examine the correlation between rainstorm floods in the TGI and inflow floods into the reservoir. We proposed an interval flood modeling scheme based on classified parameter adjustment and staged testing according to flood sources: for floods primarily driven by upstream inflows, the flood confluence parameters were calibrated; for floods predominantly influenced by regional precipitation,the flow yield parameters were calibrated. To validate the model, we compared simulated flood processes post-2012 with operational records of the TGR, demonstrating model accuracy with the relative errors of peak flow rate in calibration and verification periods within ±20% and peak time errors below 3 hours. Comparisons with Three Gorges Project (TGP) operation records confirmed the model’s suitability for simulating post-2012 TGR flood processes. Examining the flood event on June 26, 2016, as a representative case, we observed a significant 27.2% contribution rate of flood peak within the reservoir, with a peak time advance of 16 hours. These findings facilitate understanding TGR flood impacts and serve as a technical reference for flood modeling schemes within the basin region.
关键词
三峡区间 /
洪水过程模拟 /
HEC-HMS模型 /
参数率定
Key words
Three Gorges region /
flood process simulation /
HEC-HMS model /
parameter calibration
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3900601);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B220201028);三峡气候监测项目(SK2021015)
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