为评估长序列降水时空变化及其对旱涝灾害的影响,采用趋势分析、累积距平分析等方法,选择降水集中指数(PCI)、降水异常指数(PAI)等指标分析了湖北省2000—2019年20 a间降水时空分布特征以及旱涝灾害发生状况。结果表明:近20 a湖北省累计年降水量增加了0.03%,降水多集中在4—8月份,雨热同期;2019年较2000年东部降水量增加;纬度决定了省内降水量的基数,总体呈现南部多于北部,经度影响降雨量变幅,表现为东西方向降水量空间分布的较大变异性;20 a间的PCI呈下降趋势,降水季节性和时段性特征较明显,PAI显示2005—2015年期间具有洪涝转干旱的趋势,2015年SPI值最大为1.425,出现了较严重洪涝;总体来看湖北省旱涝灾害呈现周期性波动特点,时间周期特征显著。研究成果对年际尺度上区域气候变化应对、旱涝灾害预警等方面具有重要意义。
Abstract
To estimate the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation and assess its impact on drought and flood patterns, we investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and drought and flood occurrences during 2000-2019 in Hubei Province through trend analysis and accumulated anomaly analysis methods using indices such as PCI (Precipitation Concentration Index) and PAI (Precipitation Anomaly Index). Results indicate a 0.03% increase in annual average precipitation over the past two decades in Hubei Province. Precipitation primarily concentrated in April-August, coinciding with high-temperature occurrence. Compared to 2000, 2019 experienced more precipitation in the east. Latitude significantly influenced precipitation amounts, with higher levels in the south than the north, while longitude impacted spatial distribution variability, notably in an east-west direction. Over the 20-year period, PCI exhibited a decreasing trend, emphasizing distinct seasonal and temporal precipitation patterns. PAI reflected a shift from flooding to drought between 2005-2015, with severe flooding in 2015 and an SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) value of 1.425. Overall, droughts and floods in Hubei Province exhibited fluctuating cycles and were subject to notable temporal patterns. These findings provide crucial theoretical support for responses to regional climate change and drought and flood forecasting.
关键词
多年降水 /
时空变化 /
旱涝灾害 /
降水指数 /
湖北省
Key words
multi-year precipitation /
spatial and temporal variation /
drought and flood disasters /
precipitation index /
Hubei Province
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