叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析

司涵; 何英; 徐慧敏; 卢潇悦

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20221523

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raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4) : 46-54. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20221523

水资源

叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析

司涵, 何英, 徐慧敏, 卢潇悦

作者信息 +

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Flood Events in the Source Flow Area of Yarkant River

SI Han, HE Ying, XU Hui-min, LU Xiao-yue

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文章历史 +

摘要

以叶尔羌河流域源区为例,选取塔什库尔干气象站的气温数据和库鲁克栏杆站的洪水资料,基于Copula函数对洪峰流量和1、3、7 d洪水总量的概率分布特征进行分析,结合小波相干分析进一步探讨气候因子变化与洪水极值事件的关系。结果表明:两变量的同现重现期>单变量重现期>两变量的联合重现期,联合重现期和同现重现期随着洪峰流量和洪量的增大而变长,相应洪水极值事件发生概率降低;夏季日平均气温和洪峰流量序列在年代际尺度上具有高相干性,夏季日平均气温先于洪峰流量0.13~0.31周期变化;基于Copula函数建立1957—2010年夏季日平均气温与洪峰之间的二维统计模型,单变量重现期越长,所对应两变量的联合重现期与同现重现期之间相差越大;随着夏季日平均气温的升高,不同重现期洪水发生的可能性均增大。研究成果可对该地区的洪水风险管理和水资源适应性对策提供重要的科学价值和技术支撑。

Abstract

Based on temperature data from Tashkurgan meteorological station and flood data from Kulukelangan station, we investigated the probability distribution characteristics of flood peak discharge and 1 d, 3 d, and 7 d total flood volume of Yarkant River by using Copula functions. Additionally, we explored the relationship between climate factor variations and extreme flood events through wavelet coherence analysis. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence return period of two variables surpasses the single variable return period, which, in turn, exceeds the joint return period of two variables. Both the joint return period and the co-occurrence return period increase with the continuous rises in peak flow and flood volume, leading to a decreasing likelihood of corresponding extreme flood events. We also found a high coherence between summer daily average temperature and flood peak discharge series on an interdecadal scale. The summer daily average temperature tends to change 0.13-0.31 cycles prior to the occurrence of flood peak flow. By using Copula functions, we established a two-dimensional statistical model between summer daily average temperature and flood peak spanning from 1957 to 2010. Notably, as the return period of a single variable increases, the disparity between joint return period and co-occurrence return period of the corresponding two variables widens. As summer daily average temperature rises, the likelihood of floods in different return periods also increases. These research outcomes carry significant scientific value and offer technical support for the flood risk management and adaptive measures in the Yarkant River Basin.

导出引用

司涵, 何英, 徐慧敏, 卢潇悦. 叶尔羌河源流区洪水极值事件联合概率分析[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2024, 41(4): 46-54 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221523

SI Han, HE Ying, XU Hui-min, LU Xiao-yue. Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Flood Events in the Source Flow Area of Yarkant River[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(4): 46-54 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221523

中图分类号： P333

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