秦巴山区堵河流域径流变化归因分析

张晓莹; 何毅; 翁学先; 邵祎婷

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

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raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2) : 44-51. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

水资源

秦巴山区堵河流域径流变化归因分析

张晓莹^1,2, 何毅^1,2, 翁学先³, 邵祎婷⁴

作者信息 +

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Duhe River Basin in the Qinling-Daba Mountains

ZHANG Xiao-ying^1,2, HE Yi^1,2, WENG Xue-xian³, SHAO Yi-ting⁴

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

气候变化和人类活动引起的水文响应对于研究流域水资源管理有着重要意义。基于堵河流域1960—2016年降水量、潜在蒸散发量、径流量数据,采用Pettitt突变检验方法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法,利用8种Budyko假设分析了气候变化和人类活动对堵河流域径流变化的贡献率。分析结果表明:①堵河流域年径流量呈显著下降趋势(p<0.05),1994年出现拐点,年降水量和潜在蒸散发量也呈减少趋势,但均不显著(p>0.1)。②水文响应对人类活动比对气候变化更敏感,人类活动对径流的贡献率在57.69%~72.00%之间,气候变化的贡献率在28.00%~42.31%之间。③人类活动引起下垫面特征变化是径流衰减的主要原因,土地变化引起的森林增多和植被覆盖增加引起地表变化使径流量减少。研究成果表明人类活动对水文过程确有影响,以期对堵河流域水资源管理和综合治理提供理论支持。

Abstract

The hydrological response to climate change and human activities holds significant importance in the study of water resource management within a basin. In this study, we applied eight elasticity methods based on the Budyko framework to evaluate and quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on alterations in runoff patterns. This assessment was based on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff data spanning from 1960 to 2016 in the Duhe River basin. The Pettitt test method was utilized to identify abrupt shifts, while the Mann-Kendall test method was employed to assess monotonic trends. The results revealed the following key findings: 1) Annual runoff exhibited a significant declining trend (p<0.05), with a change point identified in 1994. However, annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration showed an insignificant decreasing trend (p>0.1). 2) The hydrological response demonstrates a greater sensitivity to human activities than to climate change. Human activities contributed between 57.69% and 72.00%, whereas climate change contributed between 28.00% and 42.31%. 3) Changes in underlying surface characteristics, primarily attributed to human activities, were identified as the main cause of runoff attenuation. This suggests that increased forest and vegetation cover led to a reduction in runoff. The study underscores the dominant role of human activities in hydrological processes, providing crucial theoretical support for water resource management and integrated management within the Duhe River basin.

导出引用

张晓莹, 何毅, 翁学先, 邵祎婷. 秦巴山区堵河流域径流变化归因分析[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2024, 41(2): 44-51 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

ZHANG Xiao-ying, HE Yi, WENG Xue-xian, SHAO Yi-ting. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in Duhe River Basin in the Qinling-Daba Mountains[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2024, 41(2): 44-51 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20221351

中图分类号： P339

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