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上海西部地区“烟花”台风期间高水位成因分析与对策
Cause Analysis and Countermeasures of High Water Level During “Fireworks” Typhoon in Western Shanghai
为应对上海西部地区在极端天气时面临的严峻洪涝挑战,提出有效的水位调控策略,选取“烟花”台风期间青松片为研究对象,综合分析实际雨情与工况数据,包括降雨、片内圩外河道水位、二级圩区水位、片外河道水位过程等,提出二级圩区河湖超蓄和控制圩区雨峰过后排水2种策略,运用数字化地形分析与除涝数值模拟技术,评估对缓解高水位的有效性。研究发现,实施策略能大幅度增强蓄滞能力,二级圩区河湖超蓄措施可增加圩区蓄滞能力1 169.8万m3,控制圩区雨峰过后排水措施可增加圩区蓄滞能力245.9万m3,可降低片内圩外河道水位30 cm左右,有效缓解高水位。研究不仅验证了策略的有效性,而且在现有防洪排涝体系上增添了新的调控手段,为城市在面临重大水情挑战时提供了科学的调度决策依据,对于构建更加韧性的水管理体系、保障城市安全运行具有重要的实践价值与理论贡献。
To cope with the severe flood challenges caused by extreme meteorological events in the western part of Shanghai, an effective water level control strategy was proposed. The Qingsong region of Shanghai during the “Fireworks” typhoon was selected as the research object. The actual rainfall and working condition data were comprehensively analyzed, including rainfall, water level of the river outside the polder, water level of the secondary polder, and water level process of the river outside the polder. Two strategies were proposed, namely, over-storage of rivers and lakes in the secondary polder area and controlling of drainage after the rain peak in the polder area. The effectiveness of alleviating the high water level was evaluated by using digital topographic analysis and numerical simulation of flood control. It is found that the implementation of the above strategies can greatly enhance the storage capacity, and the theoretical estimate is to increase the capacity by about 11.7 million m3 and 2.46 million m3, respectively, which can reduce the water level of the river channel in the area by about 30 cm, and effectively alleviate the high water level. This study not only verifies the effectiveness of the strategy, but also adds new controlling methods to the existing flood control and drainage system, which provides a scientific basis for the city’s scheduling decision-making when facing major water challenges, and has important practical value and theoretical contribution to building a more resilient water management system and ensuring the safe operation of the city.
flood disaster / typhoon / causes of high water / western Shanghai
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随着平原感潮河网地区城市化快速发展,下垫面变化落后导致河道泄洪能力不足,河道洪水水位明显上涨,村镇内涝灾害日益频繁,已明显制约当地经济发展。在分析平原感潮河网地区村镇内涝影响因素基础上,以典型村镇为例,通过数值模拟方法分析该地区河道洪水对村镇内涝影响。结果显示50 a一遇与100 a一遇河道洪水分别导致村镇排涝水量减少25.17%,55.24%,排涝水量减少对村镇内部河流洪水过程的影响明显。降雨量增大加剧了排涝水量减少对村镇内涝淹没面积扩大的影响。河道洪水可导致村镇内涝淹没面积扩大22%,加剧了村镇内涝灾情。此研究成果可为该地区村镇内涝风险管理提供参考。
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In plain tidal river network area, rapid urbanization with delayed corresponding changes of underlying surface have resulted in insufficient discharging capacity of river channels, together with uprising flood levels and more frequent waterlogging in villages and towns, severely impeding the local economic development. On the basis of expounding influential factors of waterlogging in villages and towns in plain tidal river network area, the impact of channel flood on waterlogging is quantified via numerical simulation with some typical villages and towns as case study. To simulate channel flood and inundation process in town precisely, both of the processes are simulated with hydrodynamic model. Results indicate that influenced by 50-year event flood and 100-year event flood, the discharge in town decreases by 25.17% and 55.24%, respectively, which evidently affects the river flood process in town. Moreover, the increase in return period of rainstorm intensifies the impact of discharge reduction on the expansion of inundated area. Extreme channel flood would expand the waterlogging area by approximately 22%, and would aggravate the waterlogging in villages and towns. The research findings provide reference for the waterlogging risk management for villages and towns in plain tidal river network areas.
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According to historical flood disaster data and social economic data in Jiangsu Province from 1984 to 2011, we analyzed the characteristics of disaster exposure from aspects of disaster area, population exposed to disaster, and crop exposed to disaster. Also we analyzed the disaster vulnerability from aspects of population vulnerability, crop vulnerability and economic vulnerability. Results show that from 1984 to 2011, the annual average area exposed to disaster was 28 000 km<sup>2</sup>, population exposed to disaster 2.275 million people, and crop exposed to disaster 4484.3 km<sup>2</sup> in Jiangsu Province. The disaster area and population exposure showed a trend of increasing, and crop exposure showed a trend of decreasing after increasing. The areas with the highest exposure were mainly distributed along the Yangtze River and Huaihe River Basin and in the coastal counties (cities, regions). The annual average population vulnerability, crop vulnerability and economic vulnerability was 0.05%, 35.3%, and 0.63%, respectively. Population vulnerability was low and showed a decreasing trend, whereas crop vulnerability showed an increasing trend, and economic vulnerability decreased after increasing first.<br/><br/>
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近年来太湖流域平原河网地区洪涝灾害频发,居民的人身及财产安全受到了严重危害。降雨是导致本区域洪水的主要因素,其中最具代表性的降雨类型为梅雨和台风暴雨,由于二者时程分布特性有较大差异,其致洪机理也有所不同。以探究降雨时程分布对洪水过程的影响为目的,以太湖流域武澄锡虞水利分区为研究对象,采用MIKE 11与MIKE 21构建一、二维耦合水动力模型,利用实况洪水过程对模型进行率定验证,采用该模型对研究区域进行不同设计工况的模拟,讨论了次雨量、降雨历时以及降雨时程分布变化对太湖流域平原河网地区洪水过程的影响。结果表明:降雨时程分布对平原河网河道洪水过程有显著影响,其中长历时降雨对雨峰位置的后移较为敏感,短历时暴雨则受到降雨时间变差系数变化的影响较大,而次雨量变化则对二者都有显著影响。
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Flood and waterlogging disasters in plain river network region in recent years have brought about severe damage to people's lives and property safety. Rainfall is the key factor causing flood disasters in the region, of which the most typical ones are plum rain and typhoon rainstorm. The flood generating mechanism of plum rain and typhoon rainstorm varies because of different temporal distribution. In the aim of investigating the influence of rainfall's temporal variation on flood process, a 1D- and 2D-coupled hydrodynamic model of Wuchengxiyu hydraulic district of Taihu Lake drainage basin was built with MIKE 11 and MIKE 21. The model was calibrated and validated by several measured flood events. Numerical simulation of flood processes under different design conditions in the study area was conducted. The influences of magnitude, duration and temporal variation of rainfall on flood process were examined. Results suggest that the temporal distribution of rainfall has apparent influence on flood in plain river network. Rainfall of long duration is sensitive to the delay of rainfall peak, while rainfall of short duration is largely affected by the time variance coefficient. Meanwhile, rainfall amount has evident impact on both long-duration and short-duration rainfall.
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Waterlogging in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is very severe. In the paper, on the basis of the two-dimensional flow model and by applying the finite volume method and unstructured mesh, the waterlogging and drainage of the Datong Lake-polder with different precipitations and floods were studied. The spatial distribution of waterlogging in the Lake-polder area and the ratio of waterlogging were gained. The negative influence of the floods on the waterlogging was analyzed quantitatively. The model results can provide technological support for the waterlogging forecasting and assessment.
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院报, 2018, 35(12): 52-56, 73.
为结合分析一维河模型和二维洪泛区模型,利用InfoWorks RS对蒋巷联圩防洪保护区洪水演进过程进行二维模拟,分别选取2010年和1998年外洲水文站实测资料对一维河道模型进行了率定和验证,结果较为合理;选取赣江50 a一遇设计洪水同时鄱阳湖遭遇湖口22.5 m(吴淞高程)恒定洪水位的边界条件,分析了最不利工况下区内的溃口溃决过程、洪水演进过程及淹没水深等要素,计算结果较好地反映了区内溃堤后的洪水演进情况。研究成果可为江西省防洪减灾提供决策支持。
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InfoWorks RS was adopted to simulate the 2D flood routing at Jiangxiang Dike by combining 1D channel model and 2D flooded area model, and the water depth, flow velocity, arrival time and other factors in the flood protection area under the most unfavorable conditions were analyzed. The measured water level data in 2010 and 1998 were used to calibrate the model, and the results indicated that the model is reasonable. The boundary conditions used in the model was 50-year event flood in Ganjiang River combined with constant flood level 22.5 m(Wusong elevation) at Hukou Station. The results demonstrate that the model could reflect the flood routing process well after dike breaking. This research offers technical support for the disaster reduction of Jiangxi province.
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