为了量化分析三峡水库防洪库容的削峰能力,采用一种优化-拟合框架,对三峡水库历史入库洪水进行分析计算。通过设置三峡水库调度期内不同的最高水位方案,采用动态规划算法,对不同类型的入库洪水进行优化求解,得出三峡水库不同防洪库容方案下的洪峰削减流量,再用回归分析,量化三峡水库防洪库容的削峰能力。结果表明:对于多年场次洪水,三峡水库动用的防洪库容与其削减洪峰流量的相关关系可划分为3种类型:“先增后平”型、“分段递增”型和“线性递增”型。前2种类型存在拐点,建议动用在阈值以下的防洪库容,以充分发挥其高效削峰能力;最后1种类型可以结合洪峰削减目标,合理规划防洪库容进行调度。分析结果可为三峡水库科学合理有效分配防洪库容提供参考。
Abstract
To quantify the peak-cutting of flood control storage capacity of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), an optimization-fitting framework was employed to calculate the historical storage flood data. Various maximum water level schemes during scheduling were set at first, and a dynamic planning algorithm within the framework was utilized to optimize and solve different incoming floods. By doing so, the flood peak reduction curves under different flood control storage capacities were obtained. Furthermore, regression analysis was employed to quantify the peak-cutting of flood control storage capacity of TGR. Results demonstrate that the correlation between the utilization of the flood control storage capacity in TGR and the reduction of flood peak flow can be classified into three types: “flat curve following an increment”, “segmented increment”, and “linear increment”. The first two types exhibit inflection points, suggesting that the flood control storage capacity should be maintained below a specific threshold to fully maximize its efficient peak-cutting capacity. As for the third type, the flood control storage capacity can be planned rationally for dispatching in line with the flood peak reduction target. The findings provide valuable insights for the scientific and rational allocation of flood control storage capacity in the Three Gorges Reservoir.
关键词
三峡水库 /
防洪效益 /
防洪调度 /
动态规划 /
削峰能力
Key words
Three Gorges Reservoir /
flood control benefits /
flood control dispatch /
dynamic programming /
flood peak attenuation capacity
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基金
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目重点支持项目(U1865201);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51979198)
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