澜沧江作为亚洲最重要的跨国水系,是“亚洲水塔”的重要组成部分。分析澜沧江上游河川径流的演变规律与变化趋势,对澜沧江水资源利用与区域绿色能源发展具有重要的战略意义。基于乌弄龙断面径流资料与上游气温、降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和Pearson相关系数等方法对近30 a澜沧江上游径流演变特征进行分析。结果表明,自有径流资料以来,澜沧江上游径流在年代际尺度上变化不大,但在季节上表现为冬季径流增加,夏季径流减少的特点,其中8月份径流在20世纪70年代初存在突变,并以4.8%/(10 a)的显著趋势下降,折合水量2.0亿m3/(10 a),且近30 a下降速率还在进一步加快,上游中部地区降水量减少与径流减少的趋势一致。研究还发现,近30 a以来,随着春季气温升高,上游径流对5月份气温的响应有所减弱,而4月份两者的关系变得密切。在全球变暖的大背景下,澜沧江上游融雪(冰)期逐渐提前,需要引起高度重视,并采取积极应对措施。
Abstract
As the most important transnational water system in Asia, the Lancang River plays a crucial role as part of the “Asian Water Tower”. Analyzing the evolutionary patterns and trends of upstream river runoff in the Lancang River has significant strategic implications for water resource utilization and regional green energy development. The present study focuses on the runoff characteristics and their evolution in the upstream of Lancang River over the past 30 years based on data from the Wunonglong section, as well as air temperature and precipitation records. Methodologies including linear regression analysis, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and Pearson correlation coefficient were employed for data analysis. The findings reveal that, over the decades since the availability of discharge data, the upstream runoff in the Lancang River has exhibited little change at the decadal scale. However, on a seasonal basis, there is a tendency of increased runoff in winter and decreased runoff in summer. Notably, a distinct shift occurred in August in the early 1970s, with a prominent decreasing trend of 4.8% per decade, approximately equivalent to a total volume reduction of 200 million cubic meters per decade. Moreover, this decreasing trend has been further accelerating in the past 30 years, consistent with the decreasing trend of precipitation in the middle region of the upstream area. The study also reveals that, over the past three decades, as spring temperatures have risen, the response of upstream runoff to temperature in May has weakened, while the relationship between temperature in April and runoff has become more pronounced. Given the background of global warming, the advancing snowmelt period in the upstream area of the Lancang River requires high attention and proactive measures.
关键词
水资源 /
径流演变 /
趋势回归 /
响应分析 /
澜沧江上游
Key words
water resources /
runoff evolution /
trend regression /
response analysis /
upstream of Lancang River
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