暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警研究与展望

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20220469

院报 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 73-79.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20220469

暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警研究与展望

唐文坚^1,2, 范仲杰², 董林垚², 刘纪根², 张平仓², 李同录³, 童官军⁴, 杜俊², 王林⁵

1. ,武汉 430010;
2. 水利部山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心,武汉 430010;
3.长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安 710054;
4.中国科学院上海微系统与信息技术研究所,上海 200050;
5.日本中央开发株式会社技术开发部,日本东京 1698612

收稿日期:2022-04-30 修回日期:2022-08-23 出版日期:2023-07-01 发布日期:2023-07-12
作者简介:唐文坚(1974-),男,福建安溪人,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事山洪地质灾害防治、水资源管理等方面的研究。E-mail: wjtangcrsri@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0111900);国家自然科学基金项目(41902300, 41977171,52109002);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2020180/TB,CKSF2021435/TB);湖北省水利重点科研项目(HBSLKY202208)

Research Framework and Prospect for Monitoring and Early Warning of Rainstorm-induced Mountain Torrent Disaster Chain

TANG Wen-jian^1,2, FAN Zhong-jie², DONG Lin-yao², LIU Ji-gen², ZHANG Ping-cang², LI Tong-lu³, TONG Guan-jun⁴, DU Jun², WANG Lin⁵

1. Changjing River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010, China;
2. Research Center on Mountain Torrent Geological Disaster Prevention of Ministry of Water Resources, Changjing River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010, China;
3. School of Geological Engineering and Surveying, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China;
4. Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology,CAS, Shanghai 200050,China;
5. Technological Development Department, Chuo Kaihatsu Corporation,Tokyo 1698612,Japan

Received:2022-04-30 Revised:2022-08-23 Online:2023-07-01 Published:2023-07-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 暴雨型山洪及其链生过程是山区常见的致灾隐患,因其点多面广、成因复杂,加之相关过程常表现显著的突发性、局地性与隐蔽性等特点,增加了灾害早期识别与监测预警的难度。目前,山洪灾害链转化机理与监测预警研究是防灾减灾领域具有综合交叉特色的国际前沿与热点问题。为此,通过梳理暴雨型山洪灾害链国内外研究现状与趋势,分析了相关研究中亟需突破的关键科学与技术问题,并针对性提出了研究方向和研究展望。其中亟待突破的关键科学与技术问题有:如何揭示暴雨-洪水-滑坡(崩塌)-泥石流的同源链生转化机理,如何建立灾害链精准监测与稳定传输技术,如何构建灾害链预警指标体系与动态预警平台。建议研究方向为:暴雨型山洪灾害链致灾因子辨识研究,暴雨型山洪灾害链关键要素监测预警技术研发,山区小流域山洪灾害链监测预警平台研发,暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警技术集成与示范。研究展望包括:突出多科学交叉、多手段融合,以“致灾因子辨识-关键技术研发-软件平台构建-集成应用示范”为研究主线,最终在灾害链驱动演化机理、精准监测与动态预警技术等方面取得突破和创新,预期成果可为提升山洪灾害链防御能力、推动生态可持续和流域高质量发展提供科技支撑。

关键词: 暴雨型山洪灾害, 山洪灾害链转化机理, 致灾关键因子, 临界发育条件, 监测预警平台, 山洪灾害链防御能力

Abstract: Rainstorm-induced flash floods and their associated chain disasters pose a common threat in mountainous areas. Their wide distribution, complex causes, and characteristics of abrupt, localized, and hidden occurrence increase the difficulty of disaster identification, monitoring, and prediction in the early stages. At present, research on the transformation mechanism and monitoring and early warning systems of mountain torrent disaster chains is an international frontier and hotspot issue in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation, which demands comprehensive interdisciplinary approaches. To address this challenge, we summarize the status and trends of domestic and foreign research on rainstorm-induced mountain torrent disaster chains, analyze the key scientific and technical issues that require breakthroughs, and proposes corresponding research directions and prospects. Key scientific and technical issues that urgently need to be tackled include: revealing the homologous chain transformation mechanism between rainstorm, flood, landslide (collapse), and debris flow; establishing accurate monitoring and stable transmission technology for disaster chains; and constructing an early warning index system and dynamic warning platform for disaster chains. Proposed research directions are as follows: identifying disaster-causing factors, developing monitoring and early warning technologies for key elements of the disaster chain, building monitoring and early warning platforms for mountainous small watersheds, and integrating and demonstrating monitoring and early warning technologies. Research prospects involve a multidisciplinary and multi-method approach, targeting “disaster-causing factor identification, key technology development, software platform construction, and integrated application demonstration” as the main research thread, and ultimately achieving breakthroughs and innovations in driving and evolving mechanisms of disaster chains, precise monitoring, and dynamic warning technology. The expected results can provide scientific and technological support for improving the defense capability against mountain torrent disaster chains and promoting sustainable ecological development and high-quality development of watersheds.

Key words: rainstorm-induced mountain torrent disaster, transformation mechanism of mountain torrent disaster chain, key disaster-causing factors, critical development condition, monitoring and early warning platform, defense capability against mountain torrent disaster chain

中图分类号:

TV87
X43

唐文坚, 范仲杰, 董林垚, 刘纪根, 张平仓, 李同录, 童官军, 杜俊, 王林. 暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警研究与展望[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(7): 73-79.

TANG Wen-jian, FAN Zhong-jie, DONG Lin-yao, LIU Ji-gen, ZHANG Ping-cang, LI Tong-lu, TONG Guan-jun, DU Jun, WANG Lin. Research Framework and Prospect for Monitoring and Early Warning of Rainstorm-induced Mountain Torrent Disaster Chain[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(7): 73-79.

[1]	陈峰, 刘曙光. 城市地下空间水灾害防治若干科技问题研究展望[J]. 院报, 2024, 41(1): 90-97.
[2]	宋雯, 王加虎, 卢金友, 赵文刚, 刘晓群. 基于水文学模型的洞庭湖内部超额洪量分布[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(11): 63-70.
[3]	李喆, 向大享, 陈喆, 崔长露. 数字孪生驱动的长江流域干旱防御平台设计与开发[J]. 院报, , (): 0-.
[4]	张乾柱, 卢阳, 严同金, 谢谦, 赵姹, 胡月. 重庆市山洪灾害时空演变特征及影响因素分析[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(7): 80-87.
[5]	程永辉, 陈航, 熊勇. 基于水工消能原理的溃口水流降速方法[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(4): 73-78.
[6]	李喆, 叶松, 杨星玥, 姚正利. 数字孪生驱动的南水北调中线水源工程水质平台设计与开发[J]. 院报, 2023, 40(3): 174-180.
[7]	黄伟杰, 刘霞, 卢陈, 杨裕桂. 珠江河口口门洪水分流比变化及成因[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(12): 66-71.
[8]	张颖, 支欢乐, 蒋水华. 基于极限学习机的堤防工程多元风险指标评价方法[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(11): 80-85.
[9]	唐海华, 李琪, 黄瓅瑶, 周超, 罗斌. 流域洪水调控计算的组态耦合技术与应用[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(8): 146-150.
[10]	田密, 盛小涛. 减压井超声波解堵试验初步研究[J]. 院报, 2021, 38(6): 102-107.
[11]	蒋水华, 黄中发, 江先河, 吴海真, 黄劲松. 堤防工程标准化管理体系风险评估方法[J]. 院报, 2020, 37(5): 180-186.
[12]	孙正兰. 淮河入江水道行洪能力分析[J]. 院报, 2020, 37(4): 50-55.
[13]	周华敏, 肖国强, 周黎明, 陈志学, 张敏. 堤防隐患物探技术研究现状与展望[J]. 院报, 2019, 36(12): 164-168.
[14]	邬爱清, 周华敏, 吴庆华. 欧美国家堤防防洪若干特点及与我国的比较[J]. 院报, 2019, 36(10): 11-18.
[15]	罗登昌, 韩旭, 于起超, 马丹璇. 堤防工程数据标准化研究[J]. 院报, 2019, 36(10): 34-38.

暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警研究与展望

Research Framework and Prospect for Monitoring and Early Warning of Rainstorm-induced Mountain Torrent Disaster Chain

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价