暴雨型山洪及其链生过程是山区常见的致灾隐患,因其点多面广、成因复杂,加之相关过程常表现显著的突发性、局地性与隐蔽性等特点,增加了灾害早期识别与监测预警的难度。目前,山洪灾害链转化机理与监测预警研究是防灾减灾领域具有综合交叉特色的国际前沿与热点问题。为此,通过梳理暴雨型山洪灾害链国内外研究现状与趋势,分析了相关研究中亟需突破的关键科学与技术问题,并针对性提出了研究方向和研究展望。其中亟待突破的关键科学与技术问题有:如何揭示暴雨-洪水-滑坡(崩塌)-泥石流的同源链生转化机理,如何建立灾害链精准监测与稳定传输技术,如何构建灾害链预警指标体系与动态预警平台。建议研究方向为:暴雨型山洪灾害链致灾因子辨识研究,暴雨型山洪灾害链关键要素监测预警技术研发,山区小流域山洪灾害链监测预警平台研发,暴雨型山洪灾害链监测预警技术集成与示范。研究展望包括:突出多科学交叉、多手段融合,以“致灾因子辨识-关键技术研发-软件平台构建-集成应用示范”为研究主线,最终在灾害链驱动演化机理、精准监测与动态预警技术等方面取得突破和创新,预期成果可为提升山洪灾害链防御能力、推动生态可持续和流域高质量发展提供科技支撑。
Abstract
Rainstorm-induced flash floods and their associated chain disasters pose a common threat in mountainous areas. Their wide distribution, complex causes, and characteristics of abrupt, localized, and hidden occurrence increase the difficulty of disaster identification, monitoring, and prediction in the early stages. At present, research on the transformation mechanism and monitoring and early warning systems of mountain torrent disaster chains is an international frontier and hotspot issue in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation, which demands comprehensive interdisciplinary approaches. To address this challenge, we summarize the status and trends of domestic and foreign research on rainstorm-induced mountain torrent disaster chains, analyze the key scientific and technical issues that require breakthroughs, and proposes corresponding research directions and prospects. Key scientific and technical issues that urgently need to be tackled include: revealing the homologous chain transformation mechanism between rainstorm, flood, landslide (collapse), and debris flow; establishing accurate monitoring and stable transmission technology for disaster chains; and constructing an early warning index system and dynamic warning platform for disaster chains. Proposed research directions are as follows: identifying disaster-causing factors, developing monitoring and early warning technologies for key elements of the disaster chain, building monitoring and early warning platforms for mountainous small watersheds, and integrating and demonstrating monitoring and early warning technologies. Research prospects involve a multidisciplinary and multi-method approach, targeting “disaster-causing factor identification, key technology development, software platform construction, and integrated application demonstration” as the main research thread, and ultimately achieving breakthroughs and innovations in driving and evolving mechanisms of disaster chains, precise monitoring, and dynamic warning technology. The expected results can provide scientific and technological support for improving the defense capability against mountain torrent disaster chains and promoting sustainable ecological development and high-quality development of watersheds.
关键词
暴雨型山洪灾害 /
山洪灾害链转化机理 /
致灾关键因子 /
临界发育条件 /
监测预警平台 /
山洪灾害链防御能力
Key words
rainstorm-induced mountain torrent disaster /
transformation mechanism of mountain torrent disaster chain /
key disaster-causing factors /
critical development condition /
monitoring and early warning platform /
defense capability against mountain torrent disaster chain
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0111900);国家自然科学基金项目(41902300, 41977171,52109002);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2020180/TB,CKSF2021435/TB);湖北省水利重点科研项目(HBSLKY202208)
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