根据中国提出的碳达峰、碳中和目标,将SSPs-RCPs分为“双碳”情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0)和高碳情景(SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)。采用SWAT水文模型,分析21世纪近期(2021—2040年)、中期(2041—2060年)和末期(2081—2100年)抚河流域径流变化趋势,以期为“双碳”目标下的流域水资源管理提供建议。研究表明:①1961—2019年,抚河流域实测年平均气温以0.18 ℃/(10 a)的速率显著上升;年降水以-32.8 mm/(10 a)速率显著下降。②“双碳”情景下,相较基准期(1995—2014年),近期、中期、末期抚河流域年均气温增幅依次加大;年降水量呈波动上升趋势。同期年平均流量呈上升趋势;9月份至次年2月份平均流量增加,3—7月份平均流量呈下降趋势;日流量的丰水极值下降,枯水极值则有所增加,水文极端事件发生可能性降低。③与“双碳”情景对比,高碳情景下年均气温增幅更大;近期和末期年降水增幅明显;年平均流量整体增幅大于“双碳”情景,5—10月份平均流量增幅明显;丰水极值也呈增加趋势。
Abstract
In line with the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, known as the dual-carbon goal of China, we divided SSP-RCPs into the dual-carbon scenario (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4, and SSP4-6.0) and the high-carbon scenario (SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). In the aim of offering suggestions for basin water resources management under the scenario of dual-carbon goal, we analyzed the streamflow change in Fuhe River Basin (FRB) in the near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and end-term (2081-2100) in the 21st century by using SWAT hydrological model. Results demonstrate that: 1) From 1961 to 2019, the annual average temperature climbed markedly at a rate of 0.18 ℃/(10 a), while the annual precipitation dropped significantly at -32.8 mm/(10 a). 2) Under the dual-carbon scenario, the increment of annual average temperature in the FRB is projected to intensify with the passing of time compared with that in base period (1995-2014). Annual average discharge is projected to fluctuate upwardly; monthly average discharge is expected to increase from September to next February but a decline from March to July. The extreme high discharge is expected to increase while extreme low discharge decline, indicating the alleviation of hydrological extremes. 3) In high-carbon scenario, the annual average temperature is estimated to rise more significantly than that in the double-carbon scenario; but the annual precipitation would fall in the near-term and the end-term. The increment of annual average discharge is projected to be greater than that in double-carbon scenario with average temperature rising more sharply from May to October. In addition, extreme high discharges in all three periods are projected to increase.
关键词
径流变化 /
气温降水变化 /
“双碳”情景 /
未来预估 /
抚河流域
Key words
streamflow change /
temperature and precipitation change /
double-carbon scenario /
projection /
Fuhe River Basin
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基金
教育事业发展(地方教育附加)-2021年双一流-人才启动费-2021r032(1521582101003);江苏省雷电竞rayget下载
教学改革课题(KYCX22_1129);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF)
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