基于20世纪50年代以来正阳关以上主要控制站逐月实测径流资料及控制站以上雨量站逐月降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和滑动t检验法,对其主要控制站径流进行趋势分析及突变检验,并对突变的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:50年代以来正阳关以上主要控制站径流均呈下降趋势,支流控制站下降趋势更为明显。淮南支流蒋家集站和横排头站在50年代后期发生突变,原因在于控制站以上水库建成并投入使用,导致径流发生了突变性的减小;淮北支流阜阳闸站年径流在1971年发生突变减小,可能因为70年代降水量较小,闸坝的拦蓄调控作用使得径流减小趋势更为显著。变化期蒋家集站、横排头站、阜阳闸站受人类活动的径流影响量分别为1 160亿、1 043亿、1 303亿m³,径流量减少率分别为49.5%、61.8%、42.3%。研究成果可为淮河流域水旱灾害防御和水资源管理提供技术支撑。

The trends and abrupt changes of runoff at major control stations in the upstream of Zhengyangguan were investigated by using Mann-Kendall trend analysis method,Mann-Kendall abrupt change test method,and moving-t test method based on monthly measured runoff data and the monthly precipitation data since the 1950s. Factors affecting the abrupt change of runoff were also analyzed. Results demonstrated that the runoff of main control stations upstream of Zhengyangguan has been on a downward trend since the 1950s, and that of the tributary control stations more obvious. In the late 1950s, the Jiangjiaji station and Hengpaitou station in the southern tributary of Huaihe River witnessed abrupt changes in runoff because the reservoirs in the upstream of control station was built and put into operation, which led to the abrupt reduction of runoff. The annual runoff of Fuyangzha station in Huaibei tributary declined abruptly in 1971 possibly because of both the small precipitation in the 1970s and the regulation effect of sluice and dam. During the abrupt changes, the runoff of Jiangjiaji station, Hengpaitou station and Fuyangzha station affected by human activities were 116.0 billion,104.3 billion,130.3 billion m³ respectively, and the runoff reduction rates were 49.5%, 61.8% and 42.3%, respectively.The research results can provide technical support for flood and drought disaster prevention and water resources management for the Huaihe River Basin.