为了实现长时段径流的准确模拟,基于abcd、TWBM、VWBM和DWBM四个月水量平衡模型的结构框架,设计了一组年径流模拟方法。其基本思路为:以L(L为12的约数)个月的累积实测降水量和潜在蒸散发量作为模型输入,通过模型模拟首先得到相应时长的累积模拟径流量,然后每个时长12/L顺次分段相加得到相应模拟年径流量。设计的年径流模拟方法在200个MOPEX流域上的应用结果表明:基于4个模型的年径流模拟方法在绝大多数流域上均能获得较为满意的模拟精度,其中以abcd模型效果最优;随着累积时段L的增加,基于4个模型的年径流模拟精度均呈现出下降趋势,但DWBM模型表现最为稳定。研究成果可为探讨较大尺度上的水文过程和规律提供一种新思路。
Abstract
To simulate annual streamflow accurately, a set of annual streamflow simulation methods were designed based on the structures of four monthly water balance models, namely, the abcd model, Thornthwaite's Water Balance Model (TWBM), Vandewiele's Water Balance Model (VWBM), and Dynamic Water Balance Model (DWBM). The main design ideas are described as follows: the accumulated observed precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in L-month (i.e., the divisor of 12) were taken as inputs, the accumulated runoff of the corresponding length of time was firstly simulated by using the selected monthly model, and the annual streamflow was subsequently calculated by the sum of the corresponding simulated runoff at different time intervals (i.e., 12/L), respectively. The developed methods were applied to 200 MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) catchments, and results manifest that the annual streamflow simulation methods based on all four models could obtain good performances for annual runoff simulations in most MOPEX catchments, and the abcd model outperformed the other three models. With the increase of L, the accuracy of annual streamflow simulation methods based on all four models decreased, and the stability of DWBM model outperformed the other three models. The research findings offer a new idea of thinking for studying hydrological processes and laws at the long hydrological time-scale.
关键词
月水量平衡模型 /
中长期径流模拟 /
时间尺度 /
时间聚合 /
MOPEX流域
Key words
monthly water balance model /
mid-long-term streamflow simulation /
hydrological time-scale /
time aggregation /
MOPEX catchments
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405204);长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040218)
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