关键词: 气候变化, GCMs降尺度, 出山径流预测, 不确定性, 水资源满足度

Abstract: Affected by climate change and human activities, mountainous discharge has undergone dramatic variability in inland river basins. Forecasting mountainous discharge and investigating its response to climate change are of great significance in both research and practice. The future runoff change and the supply-demand balance of water resources in Taolai River Basin were predicted and analyzed by optimizing 14 of the GCMs (Global Climate Models) outputs under three RCP scenarios to determine future air temperature and precipitation using the Delta downscaling and weight-based integration methods. The calibrated climate-ecological driving module is suitable for the mountainous discharge simulation in Taolai River Basin. Negative impacts of air temperature and positive impacts of precipitation and NDVI are also found. GCMs outputs indicate an overall increase of mountainous air temperature and precipitation, of which the former is mainly found in valleys while the latter more remarkable near the drainage divide. Mountainous discharge in the studied basin displays an overall increasing trend, and the variation amplitude in different sub-areas follow the sequence of OL06, OL04, OL05, OL01, OL03 and OL02 from small to large. Despite the increase of mountainous discharge, water shortage still exists during normal and dry hydro-years under the three RCP scenarios.

Key words: climate change, GCMs downscaling, mountainous discharges forecasting, uncertainty, water resources satisfaction