针对溃坝洪水风险受环境-荷载-人多种因素影响的不确定性,将不同洪水要素(水深、流速)联合考虑,分析洪水致灾的危险性。运用HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型和地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术,模拟溃坝洪水演进过程,从洪水到达时间、淹没范围等维度分析承载体的暴露度。针对人口分布与地理位置特征,基于人体失稳试验数据的统计规律、建筑物损毁标准进行承灾体脆弱性分析,提出基于灾害系统理论的溃坝洪水风险分析方法和溃坝洪水风险等级划分标准。可用于评估水库大坝失事风险,划分溃坝淹没区人口风险等级,为水库大坝突发事件应急救助和人口转移提供技术支持。
Abstract
The risk of dam-break flood is uncertain as affected by environment,load and people.The risk of flood disaster is assessed in consideration of the depth and velocity of flood.The propagation of dam-break flood is simulated by using two-dimensional hydrodynamic model with HEC-RAS software and GIS spatial analysis technology,and the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies are analyzed from flood arrival time and inundation range.The vulnerability of disaster-bearing body is analyzed according to the experimental data of human instability and building stability criteria.Finally,the risk analysis method for dam-break flood and the risk rating standard based on the disaster system theory are proposed to assess the risk of dam failure,classify the risk level of population in dam-break flood inundated area,and to provide technical support for planning and preparing the rescue and migration in dam emergency.
关键词
溃坝洪水 /
风险评估 /
等级划分 /
危险性 /
暴露度 /
承灾脆弱性 /
建筑物损毁
Key words
dam-break flood /
risk assessment /
rating /
risk /
exposure /
vulnerability /
building damage
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407105,2018YFC0407103);国家自然科学基金项目(51979176,51779154);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y719004,Y719006)
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