通过遥感(RS)技术获得的土地利用时间序列信息,分析杞麓湖流域土地利用的动态变化以及未来发展趋势。以杞麓湖流域1988年、1996年、2006年、2016年4期Landsat遥感数据为基础,在遥感与地理信息系统(GIS)技术支持下,遥感解译获取4个时段土地利用类型图,结合空间格局、转移矩阵、动态度、利用程度、空间重心,分析了该区域1988—2016年期间土地利用变化特征及其驱动机制。结果表明:空间格局上,林地变化最多,耕地次之,并且大部分耕地转化为建筑用地,其他用地不断向耕地、林地转化;土地利用重心不断向北发展,说明北部经济及其城镇化发展比南部快;方位变化表明该区域西部发展前期大于东部。最后通过驱动机制分析,发现社会经济因素是该区域土地利用变化的主要驱动因素,并且驱动作用不断扩张。研究成果可为该区土地利用可持续发展提供科学依据。

In the purpose of offering scientific basis for sustainable development of land use, we investigated into the dynamic changes and future trend of land use in Qilu Lake watershed by using the land use-time series information obtained from remote sensing(RS). We interpreted the land use maps in four time periods with the support of RS and geographic information system (GIS) technology based on Landsat data in Qilu Lake watershed in 1988, 1996, 2006 and 2016. Furthermore, we analyzed the characteristics of land use cover change and its driving mechanism in Qilu Lake watershed from 1988 to 2016 in terms of spatial distribution, transfer matrix, dynamic degree, utilization degree and spatial center of gravity. Results unveiled that in spatial scale, forest land changed the most, followed by cultivated land, most of which transformed into construction land, and other land use types transformed to cultivated land and forest land continuously. The center land use developed northward, which indicates that the development of economy and urbanization in the north is faster than that in the south. The change in orientation showed that the development in the western part of the region was larger than that in the east. In addition, social factors are the major driving factors of land use change in Qilu Lake watershed, and the driving effect is expanding.