调水工程输水渠道具有距离长、沿途地质环境复杂的特点,为了工程运行安全的标准化和规范化,必须对潜在风险进行评估并提出相应措施。针对输水渠道运行安全问题,选取结构裂缝、冰期输水不畅、渠坡失稳、材料老化、异常渗漏、地基缺陷6种故障模式进行分析评估。基于故障模式和影响分析(FMEA)运用可转换为区间直觉模糊数的多粒度语言评估方法分别对6种故障模式的严重度(S)、不易探测度(D)和发生频度(O)进行评估,运用改进的区间直觉模糊熵计算风险因子权重,最后构建基于TODIM方法各个故障模式排序模型。最终排序结果为异常渗漏风险最大,冰期输水不畅风险最小。通过与传统RPN和TOPSIS方法的排序结果进行比较,结果的可行性和有效性得到了验证。TODIM-FMEA风险评估模型可为调水工程风险评估提出一种新思路。
Abstract
The conveyance channel of water diversion project is featured with long distance and complicated geological environment. In order to standardize the safety of project operation, it is necessary to evaluate potential risks and propose corresponding measures. Six failure modes are summarized: structural cracks, poor water delivery in ice period, instability of canal slope, material aging, abnormal leakage, and foundation defects. On the basis of FMEA (Failure Mode & Effects Analysis), a multi-granularity linguistic evaluation method that can be converted to interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is adopted to evaluate the severity (S), difficulty of detection (D), and occurrence (O) of the six failure modes. Interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is used to calculate risk factor weights. And finally a ranking model for each failure mode is built based on the TODIM (Tomada de Deciso Interativa Multicritérion) method. The final ranking result suggests that the risk of abnormal leakage is the largest, and the risk of poor water delivery in ice period is the smallest. The feasibility and validity of the calculation results are verified by comparison with the ranking results of traditional RPN and TOPSIS methods. The TODIM-FMEA risk assessment model offers a new idea for the risk assessment of water diversion projects.
关键词
南水北调 /
输水渠道 /
FMEA /
区间直觉模糊 /
TODIM
Key words
South-to-North water diversion /
water conveyance channel /
FMEA /
interval intuitionistic fuzzy /
TODIM
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基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0406905)
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