以“一带一路”地区作为研究区域,利用分位数映射法的4种传递函数订正全球气候模式(HadGEM2-ES)不同RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways,温室气体浓度轨迹)情景的月降水量,以获得更具可靠性的未来降水变化的预测结果;在此基础上分析未来各地区不同RCPs情景年降水量变化趋势以及差异情况。利用均方根误差RMSE和降水偏差diff分析比较分位数映射法的订正效果,结果显示线性参数化方案PTFl法建立的传递函数综合订正效果最佳;同时也发现未订正的HadHEM2-ES在东亚和俄罗斯等地区存在明显的降水增加趋势高估。订正后的未来“一带一路”降水变化显示:①东亚、东南亚和俄罗斯地区的降水量在4个情景多为增加趋势,北非、西亚地区在4个情景多为减少趋势。②未来平均年降水量总体呈增加趋势;区域平均值中,EA(东亚)和Rus(俄罗斯)增加趋势明显,WA(西亚)和NAfr(北非)则是减少趋势。各地区降水突变情况存在明显的情景差异,RCP2.6情景突变情况最少,其他3种情景在不同地区都有不同的表现。分析结果为今后的政策制定或工程建设提供有效的参考依据。
Abstract
The future precipitation change in the Belt and Road region in 2020—2099 is estimated under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The monthly precipitation under different RCP scenarios of global climate model (HadGEM2-ES) is first of all corrected using four transfer functions of the quantile mapping method for a more reliable estimation result. On such basis, the change trend and regional differences are examined. The root mean square error (RMSE) and precipitation deviation (diff) are analyzed to compare the correction efficacy of quartile mapping method. Results demonstrate that the correction effect of linear function PTF1 reaches the optimum. The uncorrected HadGEM2-ES model overestimates the trend of precipitation increase in Central Asia in the RCP2.6 scenario; the RCP4.5 scenario overestimates the increase in precipitation in Central Asia, East Asia and Russia; the other two scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.0 overestimate the increase in precipitation in East Asia and Russia. In the four scenarios after correction, the precipitation increases in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Russia, while mostly decreases in North Africa and West Asia. In future, the average annual precipitation is generally increasing, with the average value climbing in East Asia and Russia, whereas declining in West Asia and North Africa. The abrupt change in precipitation differs with scenarios: RCP2.6 scenario has the least abrupt change, while the other three scenarios perform diversely in different regions.The analysis results provide an effective reference for future policy formulation or project construction.
关键词
降水变化 /
RCP情景 /
“一带一路” /
HadGEM2-ES模式 /
分位数映射法
Key words
precipitation change /
RCP scenario /
the Belt and Road /
HadGEM2-ES model /
quantile mapping
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基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项(2018YFC1507702)
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