崩岗是我国南方地区常见的自然灾害,但目前关于崩岗的研究大多是从定性上分析,鲜少有研究从定量上评估、预测其风险性。以桂东南区域作为研究区,利用RS与GIS技术,选取高程、坡度、坡向、土壤、地质、土地利用、植被覆盖度7个影响因子作为评价指标,以80%崩岗作为训练样本,采用Logistic模型计算出每个影响因子的权重并建立敏感性预测模型,利用ROC曲线进行模型拟合度评估,20%崩岗作为评价结果验证。结果表明:ROC曲线下的面积AUC值为0.718;地质是崩岗侵蚀的关键因子,其次为高程、坡向;研究区极度、高度、中度敏感面积分别占总面积的10.17%、19.30%、26.49%,敏感性评价结果与实际崩岗的分布趋势基本一致。研究结果表明Logistic模型可应用于区域崩岗的关键影响因子与敏感性评估中。
Abstract
Most researches on collapse gully,a frequent natural disaster in south China,focus on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative risk assessment and prediction. With southeast Guangxi Province as the study area,we established a susceptibility prediction model for collapse gully using Logistics model with 80% of the acquired collapse gully based upon RS and GIS images as training sample. We selected seven indicators inclusive of elevation,slope gradient,aspect,soil,geology,land use,and vegetation coverage,and calculated the weight of each index. Furthermore,we assessed the model’s fitting degree using ROC curve,and took 20% of the total collapse gully for model verification. Results showed that the AUC(area under curve) value of the model was 0.718,implying good prediction accuracy. Geology is the key factor of erosion,followed by elevation and slope aspect. Extremely susceptible,highly susceptible,and moderately susceptible areas accounted for 10.17%,19.30% and 26.49%,respectively of the total area. The zoning map of collapse gully accorded with the actual distribution of collapse. Results demonstrated that Logistic model is applicable to assess the key influencing factors and susceptibility of regional collapse gully.
关键词
崩岗 /
Logistic模型 /
影响因子 /
敏感性 /
桂东南区域
Key words
collapse gully /
Logistic model /
influence factors /
susceptibility /
southeast Guangxi Province
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41661043);广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFAA139234);广西科技重点研发计划项目(AB16380318))
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