基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析

代稳; 吕殿青; 王金凤; 张府柱; 仝双梅

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20160253

PDF(1638 KB)

raybet体育在线院报 ›› 2017, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6) : 17-23. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20160253

水资源与环境

基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析

代稳^1a，2，吕殿青²，王金凤^1a，张府柱^1b，仝双梅^1a

作者信息 +

Degree of Water Shortage in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River Calculated by Variable Weight Grey Correlation Method

DAI Wen^1,2, Lu Dian-qing², WANG Jin-feng¹,ZHANG Fu-zhu³, TONG Shuang-mei¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

对荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度进行分析研究，为实现区域水资源可持续合理利用提供科学依据。在水资源短缺评价研究中，前期研究成果大多采用常权法确定评价指标，致使评价指标产生状态失衡。将变权理论引入到水资源短缺程度分析中，从而确定评价指标变权重，并结合灰色关联法，构建水资源短缺程度分析的变权灰色关联法模型并加以应用。最终得出荆南三口地区三县的水资源短缺程度均为轻度缺水，其缺水程度排序为华容县>南县>安乡县。利用变权灰色关联法计算水资源短缺程度，方法可行，结果合理，满足了评价指标均衡性要求。

Abstract

The objective of the study is to analyze the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang river and to provide scientific basis for the sustainable rational utilization of water resources in the region. The use of constant weight methods in previous studies resulted in state imbalance of evaluation indicators. In the present study, the variable weight theory is adopted to define the variable weight of evaluation indicators. Furthermore, in association with gray correlation method, the gray correlation model of water shortage is established and applied to evaluating the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang river. The water resources in three outlets of Jingjiang river are all in small shortage, and the shortage degree in Huarong county is the largest, followed by Nanxian county and Anxiang county. The variable weight gray correlation method is feasible and reasonable in calculating water shortage degree, and it meets the requirements of a balanced evaluation.

导出引用

代稳，吕殿青，王金凤，张府柱，仝双梅. 基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析[J]. raybet体育在线院报. 2017, 34(6): 17-23 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20160253

DAI Wen, Lu Dian-qing, WANG Jin-feng,ZHANG Fu-zhu, TONG Shuang-mei. Degree of Water Shortage in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River Calculated by Variable Weight Grey Correlation Method[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2017, 34(6): 17-23 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20160253

中图分类号： TV213.4

参考文献

[1] WHO.Water Sanitation and Health. http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/hygiene/en/. 2003.
黄明聪,解建仓,阮本清,等.基于支持向量机的水资源短缺风险评价模型及应用.水利学报,2007,38(3):255-259.
韩宇平,阮本清,汪党献.区域水资源短缺的多目标风险决策模型研究.水利学报,2008,39(6):667-673.
王红瑞,钱龙霞,许新宜,等.基于模糊概率的水资源短缺风险评价模型及其应用.水利学报,2009,40(7):813-821.
李九一,李丽娟,柳玉梅,等.区域尺度水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系——以京津唐地区为例.地理科学进展,2010,29(9):1041-1048.
梁媛,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于循环修正模式的云南省水资源短缺程度分析.自然资源学报,2013,28(7):1146-1158.
龚艳冰,刘高峰,冯兰萍,等.江苏省水资源短缺风险的相似云评价方法研究.长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(6):931-936.
王崴,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于PSR与DCE综合模型的水资源短缺程度及变化趋势分析——以北京市为例.自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1725-1734.
钱龙霞,张韧,王红瑞,等.基于MEP和DEA的水资源短缺风险损失模型及其应用.水利学报,2015,46(10):1199-1206.
许全喜,胡功宇,袁晶.近50年来荆江三口分流分沙变化研究.泥沙研究,2009,(5):1-8.
钟一苇.荆南三口地区径流演变特征及水资源承载力研究.长沙:湖南师范大学,2015.
王壬,陈兴伟,陈莹.区域水资源可持续利用评价方法对比研究.自然资源学报,2015,30(11):1943-1955.
HASHIMOTO T, STEDINGER J R, LOUCKS D P. Reliability, Resiliency,and Vulnerability Criteria for Water Resources System Performance Evaluation. Water Resources Research, 1982, 18(1): 14-20.
阮本清,韩宇平,王浩,等.水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价.水利学报,2005,36(8):906-912.
廖强,张士锋,陈俊旭.北京市水资源短缺风险等级评价与预测.资源科学,2013,35(1):140-147.
罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用.水利学报,2008,39(9):1092-1097,1104.
杨树滩,夏自强.模糊数学在水资源紧缺程度评价中的应用研究.raybet体育在线院报,2005,22(1):25-27,56.
许应石,李长安,张中旺,等.湖北省水资源短缺风险评价及对策.raybet体育在线院报,2012,29(11):5-10.
严伏朝,解建仓,秦涛,等.基于信息扩散理论的水资源短缺风险评价.西安理工大学学报,2011,27(3):285-289.
代稳,谌洪星,仝双梅.水资源安全评价指标体系研究.节水灌溉,2012,(3):40-43,47.
夏春林,周德云,冯琦.基于变权灰色关联法的目标威胁评估.火力与指挥控制,2014,39(4):54-57.
康艳,宋松柏.水资源承载力综合评价的变权灰色关联模型.节水灌溉,2014,(3):48-53.