传统的模糊集分析法进行汛期分期过程中,在汛期区间与阈值的确定方面存在主观性较强的问题,同时该方法只能考虑单一的因素,针对这些问题提出改进模糊集分析法。使用变异系数法计算指标权重,用每个旬的所有指标加权组合成为一个综合指标,以代替原来的单一指标;使用模糊集合分析法计算隶属度,划分汛期与非汛期,最后在汛期区间内,使用均值变点分析法寻找变点,并以此进行汛期分期。改进的模糊集分析法的分期结果与数理统计法、传统模糊集合分析法的汛期分期结果大体一致,说明提出的改进模糊集分析法适用性强。
Abstract
In traditional fuzzy set analysis of flood season staging, the identification of interval and threshold of flood season is strong subjectivity, and in the meantime, only single factor is considered. In view of these problems, an improved fuzzy set analysis method is proposed. Index weights are calculated by using the variation coefficient method, and then all the indexes in every ten days are combined to obtain a comprehensive index to replace the original single indicator. Subsequently, the membership degree is calculated by fuzzy set analysis method, and flood season and non-flood season are divided. Finally, flood season staging is completed by searching the change point through the mean shift point method. The staging result of the improved fuzzy set analysis is generally consistent with those of mathematical statistics method and traditional fuzzy set analysis method. The improved fuzzy set analysis method proposed in this paper is proved to be of high applicability.
关键词
改进模糊集分析法 /
变异系数法 /
均值变点分析法 /
汛期分期 /
吴城水库
Key words
improved fuzzy set analysis method /
variation coefficient method /
mean shift point analysis /
flood season staging /
Wucheng reservoir
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 薛凤海.山西省黄河水资源利用现状与前景分析[J].人民黄河,1999,21(6):15-17.[2] 金保明,方国华.分形分析法在汛期分期中的应用[J].福州大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(2):247-251,260.[3] 王丽学,孙晓东,李学森,等.汛期分期定量分析方法在汤河水库中的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(3):44-47.[4] 王宗志,王银堂,吴浩云,等.基于模糊时序有效聚类的太湖流域汛期分期研究[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(5):29-34.[5] 刘克琳,王银堂,胡四一.水库汛期分期定量分析方法的应用比较研究[J].水利水电技术,2006,37(9):76-78, 82.[6]蒋海艳,莫崇勋,韦逗逗,等.水库汛期分期研究综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2012,32(3):75-80. [7] 邢旭光,史文娟,赵 崭,等.基于模糊集分析法的浑河流域汛期分期研究[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(5):231-234.[8] 贾 敏,母晓妃.模糊集分析法在水库汛期分期中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):178-181.[9] 孙等平,谢水钦,孙 毅.吴城水库汛期分期调度研究与应用[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(7):109-112.[10]蒋云钟,周惠成,王本德,等.我国北方水库汛期描述的综合分析方法[J].水电能源科学,1995,13(3):143-148. [11]杨 逾,郑志明. 基于范例推理的软基处理评价方案研究[J].raybet体育在线
院报,2015,32(12):93-97. [12]张建生,黄 强,马永胜,等.水库汛期分期及其评价方法[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(10):229-234.[13]SL 44—2006,水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.[14]WANG He-jia, XIAO Wei-hua, WANG Jian-hua, et al. The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin[J]. Water, 2016, 8(3): 1-11.[15]常直杨,王 建,白世彪,等.均值变点分析法在最佳集水面积阈值确定中的应用[J]. 南京师大学报( 自然科学版),2014,37(1):147-150.
PDF(1435 KB)
