为深入了解贵州省强降水天数变化规律,基于贵州省1960—2013年19个气象站逐日降水资料,利用气候变化趋势分析法和Kriging插值法分析了贵州省54 a来强降水天数时空变化特征。结果表明:1960—2013年贵州省强降水天数整体呈下降趋势;空间变化趋势呈现中西部大幅减少,东部、南部和北部小幅减少或小幅增加的特点;各坡度带上强降水天数接近,随着高程增加,强降水天数呈减少趋势;北盘江、都柳江、红水河和南盘江强降水天数高于赤水河、牛栏江横江、乌江和沅江;都柳江和南盘江强降水天数呈增加趋势,其他流域呈减少趋势;汛期与非汛期强降水天数分布及变化趋势在高程带、坡度带及各流域上存在差异。研究结果可为贵州省气象灾害防治提供参考。
Abstract
In this article,the spatial and temporal variation laws of heavy precipitation days in Guizhou Province in the past 54 years were analyzed based on daily precipitation data obtained from 19 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2013 by means of climate change trend analysis and Kriging interpolation. Results revealed a decline trend of heavy precipitation days in the past 54 years in Guizhou Province, with a sharp decline trend in the central and west parts whereas a slight increase or slight decline in the eastern, southern and northern parts. Heavy precipitation days in areas of different slope gradients were similar. With the increase of elevation, heavy precipitation days showed a decrease trend. Heavy precipitation days in Beipan River, Duliu River, Hongshui River and Nanpan River were greater than those in Chishui River, Niulan River, Wujiang River and Yuanjiang River. Heavy precipitation days showed an increase trend in Duliu River and Nanpan River, while a decline trend could be found in other watersheds. The study also showed significant differences in heavy precipitation days among elevation, slope gradient and watershed in flood season and non-flood season. The results offer reference for meteorological disaster prevention and control in Guizhou province.
关键词
贵州省 /
强降水天数 /
时空变化 /
气候变化 /
趋势分析法 /
Kriging插值法
Key words
Guizhou Province /
heavy precipitation days /
spatial and temporal variation /
climate change /
trend analysis method /
Kriging interpolation
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基金
贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合J字[2014]2048号);贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2017]217)
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