极端天气事件对人类和自然环境的影响巨大,为评估其变化趋势,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性倾向估计法分析了赣南地区1956—2013年基于气温和极端降水的8个指标的变化趋势。结果表明:①年降雨总量没有显著变化,季节性变化差异较大;②气温在年尺度和季节尺度变化一致,几乎全部站点年最高气温和年最低气温都有显著上升趋势,且秋季上升幅度最大,其最低气温最大上升幅度为每10 a上升0.39 ℃;除春季外,日温差均为减小趋势;③极端降水事件有增加趋势,年尺度上最大日降雨量和最大3日降雨量均有显著增加趋势,冬季增加趋势更加显著。本研究结果显示赣南地区气温变化趋势与全球变暖保持一致,极端降水事件也在加剧。
Abstract
Extreme weather events have huge impact on human and the environment. In this article, Mann-Kendall test and linear trend method were adopted to examine the trend of eight indicators according to temperature and precipitation data in south Jiangxi Province from 1956 to 2013. The indicators include average value of daily maximum temperature difference (MxT), average value of daily minimum temperature (MnT), average value of daily temperature difference (△T), total precipitation (P), annual maximum 1-day rainfall (AM1R), annual maximum 3-day rainfall (AM3R), annual maximum 5-day rainfall (AM5R), and annual maximum 7-day rainfall (AM7R). Results showed that 1) there was no significant change in annual precipitation index, but the seasonal variations were obvious; 2) temperature indicators showed the same trend both in year scale and in season scale, and in almost all the sites MxT and MnT showed significant upward trend, in particular, MnT in autumn had the largest increase of 0.39 ℃ per decade. △T decreased except in spring; 3) extreme precipitation events showed an upward trend, and AM1R and AM3R increased significantly, especially in winter. The research results suggest that the temperature trend in Southern Jiangxi is in accordance with global warming trend, and extreme precipitation events are intensifying.
关键词
气候变化 /
极端气候 /
赣江流域 /
年最高气温 /
年最大日降雨量
Key words
climate change /
extreme climate /
Ganjiang River Basin /
maximum annual temperature /
maximum annual daily rainfall
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51409216);鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金资助项目(PK2014003)
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